{"id":107496,"date":"2024-09-27T11:44:46","date_gmt":"2024-09-27T04:44:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=107496"},"modified":"2024-09-27T11:44:46","modified_gmt":"2024-09-27T04:44:46","slug":"the-final-countdown-in-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=107496","title":{"rendered":"The Final Countdown in Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p style=\"margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:10.0pt;margin-left:&#10;0in\"><span style=\"color:black\">Ukrainian president <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2024\/09\/26\/politics\/zelensky-biden-harris-washington-visit\/index.html\"><span style=\"color:#1155CC\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;&#10;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;white-space:pre-wrap\">Volodymyr Zelensky<\/span><\/span><\/a><span style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\"><span style=\"color:black\"> has met with President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in what might prove to be the moment of decision since Russia initiated major combat operations inside Ukraine over 900 days ago.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:10.0pt;margin-left:&#10;0in\"><span style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\"><span style=\"color:black\">Numerous clocks are now ticking. Can Ukraine\u2019s military hold its defensive lines in eastern Ukraine? Can the <\/span><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/blog\/buzz\/kursk-offensive-has-thrown-russias-ukraine-war-strategy-chaos-212929\"><span style=\"color:#1155CC\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;&#10;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;white-space:pre-wrap\">Russian military<\/span><\/span><\/a><span style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\"><span style=\"color:black\"> bring to bear concentrated force to crack Ukrainian defenses before the winter? Will the U.S. and other NATO allies permit Ukraine to use the weapons systems they provide to strike deeper into Russia? Can the Western defense industrial complex get enough equipment into the Ukraine supply pipeline in a timely fashion? Last but not least, <\/span><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/feature\/video-should-america-continue-support-ukraine-212885\"><span style=\"color:#1155CC\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;&#10;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;white-space:pre-wrap\">who will win<\/span><\/span><\/a><span style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\"><span style=\"color:black\"> the U.S. presidential election and be inaugurated in January 2025?<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"T-90 Tank from Russia\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/sites\/default\/files\/main_images\/T-90%20Tank%20by%20Russia.jpg\" width=\"1200\"\/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:10.0pt;margin-left:&#10;0in\"><span style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\"><span style=\"color:black\">Aware of these looming deadlines, the Zelensky hopes that the United States and its partners will stop these clocks. The theory of victory is based on two assumptions. First, <\/span><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/blog\/buzz\/ukraines-kursk-gambit-end-putin-or-zelensky%C2%A0-212634\"><span style=\"color:#1155CC\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;&#10;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;white-space:pre-wrap\">Russia cannot sustain<\/span><\/span><\/a><span style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\"><span style=\"color:black\"> its efforts for the long term, and sufficient disruption of the Kremlin\u2019s capabilities will bring the Russians to the table to negotiate. Second, if the West commits to a rapid and major resupply effort for the Ukrainian military, accompanied by robust security guarantees, the Russians will be forced to recognize they cannot overwhelm Ukraine in a war of attrition.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:10.0pt;margin-left:&#10;0in\"><span style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\"><span style=\"color:black\">The heart of the Ukrainian victory plan shifts the center of gravity from the battlefields of Eastern Ukraine to Russia\u2019s war-making capabilities. Bringing an end to the conflict requires Ukraine to have the ability to disrupt and damage Russia\u2019s ability to manufacture and deploy its arsenal before it reaches Ukraine. It, therefore, requires not only Western permission to use NATO-supplied systems but also enough equipment to deliver swift and significant disruptive blows. It also asks for more precise Western security guarantees to raise the risks for Russia\u2019s escalation calculus in the future.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:10.0pt;margin-left:&#10;0in\"><span style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\"><span style=\"color:black\">It is no coincidence that Russian president Vladimir Putin announced changes to <\/span><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2024\/09\/26\/putin-reveals-new-rules-on-nuclear-weapons-in-russias-latest-threat.html\"><span style=\"color:#1155CC\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;&#10;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;white-space:pre-wrap\">Russia\u2019s strategic nuclear guidance<\/span><\/span><\/a><span style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\"><span style=\"color:black\"> precisely during Zelensky\u2019s trip to the United States. <\/span><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/feature\/why-russia%E2%80%99s-secret-foreign-policy-annex-matters-210697\"><span style=\"color:#1155CC\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;&#10;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;white-space:pre-wrap\">Putin<\/span><\/span><\/a><span style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\"><span style=\"color:black\"> maintains that if a non-nuclear state strikes Russia with a massive attack using capabilities supplied by a nuclear state, Moscow reserves the right to view this as an existential threat to its deterrent capabilities and may respond accordingly. Essentially, Putin is saying he will no longer recognize a distinction between Ukraine using a capability and the state that is both supplying that capability and facilitating its use.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:10.0pt;margin-left:&#10;0in\"><span style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\"><span style=\"color:black\">In their own ways, both Zelensky and Putin are demanding that the United States and the West qualify and quantify what it means when they say they will do what it takes to see \u201cUkraine prevail.\u201d The Biden-Harris team will now have to answer several key questions.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:10.0pt;margin-left:&#10;0in\"><span style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\"><span style=\"color:black\">First, do they accept the Zelensky theory of victory? Do they accept the feasibility of major disruptive strikes on Russian outposts, installations, and logistics nodes as a way to end the Russian offensive and bring Putin to the table?<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Ukraine\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/sites\/default\/files\/main_images\/Zelensky_SS.jpeg\" width=\"1200\"\/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:10.0pt;margin-left:&#10;0in\"><span style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\"><span style=\"color:black\">Second, do they <\/span><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/feature\/%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bovercoming-fear-escalation-212951\"><span style=\"color:#1155CC\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;&#10;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;white-space:pre-wrap\">believe Putin<\/span><\/span><\/a><span style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\"><span style=\"color:black\"> and his statements that the use of Western systems in this manner opens a pathway for escalation?\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:10.0pt;margin-left:&#10;0in\"><span style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\"><span style=\"color:black\">Third, can the United States\u2014on its own or in coalition with allies\u2014offer the level of security assurances that Zelensky seeks without a treaty requiring Senate confirmation or NATO unanimity? Would any such executive agreement be taken seriously by both Kyiv and Moscow, given the legacy of, among other things, the <\/span><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/treaties.un.org\/Pages\/showDetails.aspx?objid=0800000280401fbb\"><span style=\"color:#1155CC\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;&#10;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;white-space:pre-wrap\">Budapest Memorandum<\/span><\/span><\/a><span style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\"><span style=\"color:black\">?<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:10.0pt;margin-left:&#10;0in\"><span style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\"><span style=\"color:black\">Finally, do they have confidence that the Western defense-industrial complex will take the latest tranche of aid\u2014which now moves from supplying Ukraine with U.S. stockpiles to providing financial resources for Ukraine to purchase from firms directly\u2014as sufficient stimulus to ratchet up production?\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:10.0pt;margin-left:&#10;0in\"><span style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\"><span style=\"color:black\">A related question is whether support for Ukraine is, in fact, a major issue for the U.S. elections. Will Vice President Kamala Harris see additional voters come into her column because she supports Ukraine? Will former President <\/span><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/feature\/what-donald-trumps-ukraine-strategy-could-look-208066\"><span style=\"color:#1155CC\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;&#10;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;white-space:pre-wrap\">Donald Trump<\/span><\/span><\/a><span style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\"><span style=\"color:black\">\u2014who, in his recent comments, now suggests that Ukraine should have accepted earlier \u201c<\/span><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pbs.org\/newshour\/politics\/watch-live-trump-talks-about-protecting-workers-in-north-carolina-campaign-stop\"><span style=\"color:#1155CC\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;&#10;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;white-space:pre-wrap\">deals<\/span><\/span><\/a><span style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\"><span style=\"color:black\">\u201d (including the parameters of the <\/span><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/feature\/reconstructing-istanbul-accords-208818?page=0%2C2\"><span style=\"color:#1155CC\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;&#10;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;white-space:pre-wrap\">2022 Istanbul formula<\/span><\/span><\/a><span style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\"><span style=\"color:black\">)\u2014lose support?<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Putin\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/sites\/default\/files\/main_images\/Shutterstock_Putin.jpg\" width=\"1200\"\/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top:0in;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:10.0pt;margin-left:&#10;0in\"><span style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\"><span style=\"color:black\">Biden will delay answering these questions until after the November 5 election, when he can take action without impacting the election of his successor. Moscow, in turn, will do what it can to change the facts on the ground in the coming weeks. We are now <\/span><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/feature\/defining-europe%E2%80%99s-frontiers-211855\"><span style=\"color:#1155CC\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;&#10;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;white-space:pre-wrap\">waiting<\/span><\/span><\/a><span style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\"><span style=\"color:black\"> to see who will run out the clock first.\u200b<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"margin: 0in 0in 10pt;\"><strong><span style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\"><span style=\"color:black\">About the Author<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p style=\"margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; background: white;\"><span style=\"color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fpri.org\/contributor\/nikolas-gvosdev-2\/\"><i><span style=\"color:#1155CC\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;&#10;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;white-space:pre-wrap\">Nikolas K. Gvosdev<\/span><\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"white-space:pre-wrap\"> is a Senior Fellow for national security at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and the editor of Orbis.<\/span><\/i><\/span><\/p>\n<p><em>Images: Shutterstock.com. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><span rel=\"schema:url\" resource=\"\/feature\/final-countdown-ukraine-212972\" class=\"rdf-meta element-hidden\"\/><span property=\"schema:name\" content=\"The Final Countdown in Ukraine\" class=\"rdf-meta element-hidden\"\/> <\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><div data-type=\"_mgwidget\" data-widget-id=\"1660802\">\r\n<\/div>\r\n<script>(function(w,q){w[q]=w[q]||[];w[q].push([\"_mgc.load\"])})(window,\"_mgq\");\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/feature\/final-countdown-ukraine-212972\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has met with President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in what might prove to be the moment of decision since Russia initiated major combat &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=107496\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-107496","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-world","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107496","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=107496"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107496\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=107496"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=107496"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=107496"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}