{"id":108026,"date":"2024-09-28T18:31:45","date_gmt":"2024-09-28T11:31:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=108026"},"modified":"2024-09-28T18:31:45","modified_gmt":"2024-09-28T11:31:45","slug":"harris-stretches-lead-over-trump-in-what-could-be-significant-increase-us-elections-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=108026","title":{"rendered":"Harris stretches lead over Trump in what could be significant increase | US elections 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<p>&#8221; frameBorder=&#8221;0&#8243; class=&#8221;dcr-ivsjvk&#8221;&gt;<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-an2vbh\">To put it in perspective, the polling analysis website 538, also known as Five Thirty Eight, gave Harris a <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/538\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">2.9-point advantage<\/a> on Friday morning, smaller than the Guardian\u2019s advantage but within range. The site translated that into Harris having a <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/2024-election-forecast\/?cid=rrpromo\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">58% chance of winning<\/a> November\u2019s election, against 42% for Trump.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-an2vbh\">The caveat is that these figures relate to national polls, while the election outcome is almost certain to be decided by who wins certain key swing states under America\u2019s electoral college system.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-an2vbh\">Nevertheless, the fact that Harris\u2019s national poll lead may be increasing \u2013 even by small margins \u2013 may turn out to be significant.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-an2vbh\">Polling suggests that Harris is likely to win the popular vote \u2013 Democratic candidates have done so in five out of the past six presidential elections in the 21st century, yet <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/republicans\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\">Republicans<\/a> eked out a victory in two of those contests.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-an2vbh\">The first was in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/uselections2000\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">2000, when George W Bush edged out Al Gore<\/a> \u2013 despite losing the nationwide tally by around 540,000 \u2013 after a weeks-long court battle to decide who had won Florida, where thousands of ballots were disputed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-an2vbh\">More recently, Trump triumphed in the electoral college in 2016 thanks to wafer-thin victory margins in the three blue-wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin despite gaining around 2.7m fewer votes than Hillary Clinton across the nation.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"ab657114-afe0-47eb-8bae-7db5ccdb3ee7\" data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" data-spacefinder-type=\"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.InteractiveAtomBlockElement\" class=\" dcr-173mewl\">\n<p><gu-island name=\"InteractiveAtomMessenger\" 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class=&quot;section-polltracker page-section svelte-14htowf&quot;&gt;&lt;div class=&quot;section-heading-line svelte-14obzfz&quot;&gt;&lt;h2 class=&quot;headline-main svelte-14obzfz&quot;&gt;&lt;span slot=&quot;main-heading&quot;&gt;Polling over time&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/h2&gt; &lt;h3 class=&quot;headline-light svelte-14obzfz&quot;&gt;&lt;span slot=&quot;sub-heading&quot;&gt;Polling average over a moving 10-day period. Each circle represents an individual poll result and is sized by 538's pollster rating&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/h3&gt; &lt;\/div&gt; &lt;div class=&quot;hold svelte-14htowf&quot; style=&quot;width: 100%; height: 430px; background-color: var(--primary-bg-color)&quot; data-svelte-h=&quot;svelte-1qkjue6&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-top: 20px;&quot; class=&quot;svelte-14htowf&quot;&gt;Loading...&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;\/div&gt; &lt;\/section&gt; &lt;\/div&gt;&#10;&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;\/div&gt;&lt;\/body&gt;&lt;script&gt;&#10;        var el = document.createElement('script');&#10;        el.src=\" https:=\"\" document.body.appendchild=\"\"><script><![CDATA[\n                            function resize() {\n                                window.frameElement.height = document.body.offsetHeight;\n                            }\n                            window.addEventListener('resize', resize);\n                            resize();\n                        ]]><\/script><script><![CDATA[\n                            var fonts = [].slice.apply(window.parent.document.styleSheets)\n                                .filter(function (sheet) { return sheet.ownerNode.className.indexOf(&quot;webfont&quot;) > - 1; })\n                                .map(function (sheet) { return sheet.ownerNode.textContent; })\n                                .join(' ');\n                            var css = document.createElement('style');\n                            css.textContent = fonts;\n                            document.head.appendChild(css);\n                        ]]><\/script><\/iframe><\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\">\n<p>&#8221; frameBorder=&#8221;0&#8243; class=&#8221;dcr-ivsjvk&#8221;&gt;<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-an2vbh\">The prospects of a repeat 2016 scenario are a recurring nightmare in the minds of many <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/democrats\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\">Democrats<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-an2vbh\">However, Harry Enten, CNN\u2019s data analyst, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2024\/09\/24\/politics\/video\/cnn-poll-enten-harris-trump-six-weeks-digvid\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">painted a rosier outlook<\/a> for Harris stemming from her range of national poll leads. Although his own network\u2019s latest survey gave her only a narrow, one-point advantage, Enten acknowledged that other polls reflected a bigger lead, some as large as six points.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-an2vbh\">\u201cWe talk about these national polls, but the bottom line is, it\u2019s a race to 270 [electoral college votes],\u201d he said. \u201cOne way you can kind of get at this is: [what are] Harris\u2019s chances, given a popular vote margin? And what\u2019s the chance you win the electoral college?\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-an2vbh\">Continuing the theme, Enten argued that Trump would have an electoral college advantage if the national vote were tallied with the CNN poll that gave Harris a single-point lead \u2013 but that this would disappear if she were to win the national vote by a wider margin as suggested by other polls and reflected in the Guardian tracker.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-an2vbh\">\u201cIf you model it out, and we sort of get where that CNN poll is \u2013 plus one \u2013 I think <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/donaldtrump\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\">Donald Trump<\/a> would be favoured in the electoral college. Harris would just have a 33% chance of winning,\u201d he said. \u201cBut if you get closer to where the average poll is, a plus-two to plus-three margin, then Harris is a slight favourite in the electoral college.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-an2vbh\">The long-standing assumption underpinning that argument \u2013 common to pollsters and political partisans alike and reinforced by Trump\u2019s 2016 winning-while-losing feat \u2013 is that Republicans have a natural advantage in the electoral college, meaning that a Democratic candidate needs to win the popular vote by a significant margin to be sure of securing the 270 electoral votes essential for victory.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-an2vbh\">Nate Cohn, the New York Times\u2019 chief poll analyst, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/09\/25\/upshot\/trump-electoral-college-harris.html\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">argued<\/a> that there was evidence that this GOP advantage was being eroded.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-an2vbh\">Cohn detected the trend, counterintuitively, in a New York Times\/Siena poll that showed Harris and Trump tied nationally at 47% \u2013 while the Democratic nominee is leading by an impressive four points in Pennsylvania, arguably the most important swing state of all.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-an2vbh\">\u201cThere\u2019s growing evidence to support a surprising possibility: [Trump\u2019s] once formidable advantage in the electoral college is not as ironclad as many presumed. Instead, it might be shrinking,\u201d Cohn argued.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-an2vbh\">He went on: \u201cAccording to the New York Times\u2019 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2024\/us\/elections\/polls-president.html\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">polling average<\/a>, it does not seem that Kamala Harris will necessarily need to win the popular vote by much to prevail.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-an2vbh\">The reason, roughly summarised, is that while Harris is sustaining narrow leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin \u2013 three states that would be enough to get the vice-president to the coveted 270 electoral votes \u2013 Trump is polling better than four years ago in states he still has little chance of winning.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-an2vbh\">\u201cOn the one hand, Ms Harris is holding her own in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2024\/us\/elections\/polls-president-michigan.html\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">Michigan<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2024\/us\/elections\/polls-president-wisconsin.html\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">Wisconsin<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2024\/us\/elections\/polls-president-pennsylvania.html\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">Pennsylvania<\/a>,\u201d Cohn wrote, while cautioning that her lead was \u201ctenuous\u201d. \u201cThe second half of the explanation, oddly, is that Mr Trump is <em>gaining <\/em>in non-competitive states like New York, improving his position in the national popular vote without helping him in the most important states.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-an2vbh\">With just over five weeks to go before polling day, none of this is predictive of a final outcome. But it may just suggest a scenario where the candidate destined for the White House is the one who wins the most votes \u2013 which, after all, is how democracy is meant to work.<\/p>\n<p><gu-island name=\"SlotBodyEnd\" priority=\"feature\" deferuntil=\"visible\" props=\"{&quot;contentType&quot;:&quot;Article&quot;,&quot;contributionsServiceUrl&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/contributions.guardianapis.com&quot;,&quot;idApiUrl&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/idapi.theguardian.com&quot;,&quot;isMinuteArticle&quot;:false,&quot;isPaidContent&quot;:false,&quot;pageId&quot;:&quot;us-news\/2024\/sep\/28\/harris-stretches-lead-over-trump&quot;,&quot;sectionId&quot;:&quot;us-news&quot;,&quot;shouldHideReaderRevenue&quot;:false,&quot;stage&quot;:&quot;PROD&quot;,&quot;tags&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;us-news\/us-elections-2024&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;Keyword&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;US elections 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