{"id":108803,"date":"2024-09-30T18:26:47","date_gmt":"2024-09-30T11:26:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=108803"},"modified":"2024-09-30T18:26:47","modified_gmt":"2024-09-30T11:26:47","slug":"kamala-harris-the-slight-favourite-to-win-us-election-as-she-narrowly-leads-in-key-states","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=108803","title":{"rendered":"Kamala Harris the slight favourite to win US election as she narrowly leads in key states"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div itemprop=\"articleBody\">\n<p>The US presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst <a href=\"https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model\">Nate Silver\u2019s aggregate<\/a> of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 49.3\u201346.0 \u2013 a slight widening of the competition <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/harris-post-debate-gains-sustained-in-us-polls-but-republicans-likely-to-gain-senate-control-239385\">since last Monday<\/a>, when Harris led Trump by 49.2\u201346.2.<\/p>\n<p>President Joe Biden\u2019s final position before his withdrawal as Democratic candidate on July 21 was a national poll deficit against Trump of 45.2\u201341.2.<\/p>\n<p>There will be a debate on Tuesday evening US time <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/news\/politics\/elections\/2024\/09\/25\/when-is-vp-debate\/75364640007\/\">between the vice-presidential candidates<\/a>, Democrat Tim Walz and Republican JD Vance. Vice-presidential debates in previous elections have not had a significant influence on the contest.<\/p>\n<p>The US president isn\u2019t elected by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives electoral votes equal to its federal House seats (population based) and senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes as winner-takes-all, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).<\/p>\n<p>The Electoral College is biased to Trump relative to the national popular vote, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win in Silver\u2019s model to be the Electoral College favourite.<\/p>\n<p>In Silver\u2019s polling averages, Harris leads Trump by one to two points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (ten) and Nevada (six).  If Harris wins all these states, she is likely to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.270towin.com\/maps\/1VKxD\">win the Electoral College<\/a> by at least a 276\u2013262 margin. Trump is ahead by less than a point in North Carolina (16 electoral votes) and Georgia (16), and if Harris wins both, she wins by 308\u2013230.<\/p>\n<p>In Silver\u2019s model, Harris has a 56% chance to win the Electoral College, up from 54% last Monday but down from her peak of 58% two days ago. Earlier this month, there were large differences in win probability between Silver\u2019s model and the <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/2024-election-forecast\/\">FiveThirtyEight model<\/a>, which was more favourable to Harris. But these models have nearly converged, with FiveThirtyEight now giving Harris a 59% win probability.<\/p>\n<p>There are still more than five weeks until election day, so polls could change in either Trump\u2019s or Harris\u2019 favour by then. Harris\u2019 one to two point leads in the key states are tenuous, and this explains why Trump is still rated a good chance to win.<\/p>\n<p>Silver <a href=\"https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/sbsq-12-will-the-polls-lowball-trump?utm_source=publication-search\">wrote on September 1<\/a> that polls in 2020 and 2016 were biased against Trump, but polls in 2012 were biased against Barack Obama. In the last two midterm elections (2022 and 2018), polls have been good. It\u2019s plausible there will be a polling error this year, but which candidate such an error would favour can\u2019t be predicted.<\/p>\n<p>On Sunday, Silver said if there was a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/the-128-paths-to-the-white-house\">systematic error<\/a> of three or four points in the polls in either Trump\u2019s or Harris\u2019 favour, that candidate would sweep all the swing states and easily win the Electoral College. There are other scenarios in which one candidate underperforms the polls with some demographics but overperforms with other demographics.<\/p>\n<p>I wrote about the US election for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pollbludger.net\/2024\/09\/26\/us-presidential-election-minus-six-weeks\/\">The Poll Bludger<\/a> last Thursday, and also covered bleak polls and byelection results in Canada for the governing centre-left Liberals ahead of an election due by October 2025, a dreadful poll for UK Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the new French prime minister, a German state election and a socialist win in Sri Lanka\u2019s presidential election.<\/p>\n<h2>Upwardly revised economic data<\/h2>\n<p>Last Thursday, a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2024\/gross-domestic-product-third-estimate-corporate-profits-revised-estimate-and-gdp-0#:%7E:text=Disposable%20personal%20income%20increased%20%24260.4,revision%20of%201.4%20percentage%20points.\">revised estimate of June quarter US GDP<\/a> was released. There was a large upward revision in real disposable personal income compared to the previously reported figures. This has resulted in the <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/PSAVERT\">personal savings rate<\/a> being revised up to 4.9% in July from the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/harris-gains-in-post-debate-us-national-polls-but-will-her-gains-be-sustained-239059\">previously reported<\/a> 2.9%, and it was 4.8% in August.<\/p>\n<p>With these upward revisions, Silver\u2019s economic index that averages six indicators is now at +0.25, up from +0.09. As the incumbent party\u2019s candidate, a better economy than was previously believed should help Harris.<\/p>\n<h2>Coalition gains narrow lead in Essential<\/h2>\n<p>In Australia, a national <a href=\"https:\/\/essentialreport.com.au\/reports\/federal-political-insights\">Essential poll<\/a>, conducted on September 18\u201322 from a sample of 1,117 people, gave the Coalition a 48\u201347 lead (including undecided voters) after a 48\u201348 tie in early September. It\u2019s the Coalition\u2019s first lead in the Essential poll since mid-July.<\/p>\n<p>Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 29% Labor (down one), 12% Greens (down one), 8% One Nation (steady), 2% UAP (up one), 9% for all Others (up one) and 5% undecided (steady).<\/p>\n<figure class=\"align-center zoomable\">\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/622358\/original\/file-20240930-22-8ehtoj.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"placeholder-container\" style=\"--aspect-ratio-percent:66.71087533156499%;--background-color:#9d6c5f\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"A man in a suit sits and speaks\" class=\"lazyload\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/622358\/original\/file-20240930-22-8ehtoj.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/622358\/original\/file-20240930-22-8ehtoj.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/622358\/original\/file-20240930-22-8ehtoj.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/622358\/original\/file-20240930-22-8ehtoj.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/622358\/original\/file-20240930-22-8ehtoj.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/622358\/original\/file-20240930-22-8ehtoj.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/622358\/original\/file-20240930-22-8ehtoj.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px\"\/><\/div>\n<p><\/a><figcaption>\n              <span class=\"caption\">The Coalition holds a narrow lead in the latest Essential poll.<\/span><br \/>\n              <span class=\"attribution\"><a class=\"source\" href=\"https:\/\/photos.aap.com.au\/search\/20240923199697476175\">Steven Markham\/AAP<\/a><\/span><br \/>\n            <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Anthony Albanese\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/essentialreport.com.au\/reports\/24-september-2024\">net approval<\/a> was up five points since August to \u20135, with 47% disapproving and 42% approving. Peter Dutton\u2019s net approval was down one to net zero.<\/p>\n<p>On social media regulations, 48% thought them too weak, 43% about right and 8% too tough. By 67\u201317, voters supported imposing an age limit for children to access social media (68\u201315 in July). By 71\u201312, voters supported making doxing (the public release of personally identifiable data) a criminal offence (62\u201319 in February).<\/p>\n<p>By 49\u201318, voters supported Labor\u2019s Help to Buy scheme, and by 57\u201313 they supported the build-to-rent scheme. The questions give detail that few voters would know.<\/p>\n<p>Voters were told the Liberals and Greens had combined to delay Labor\u2019s housing policies in the senate. By 48\u201322, voters thought the Liberals and Greens should pass the policies and argue for their own policies at the next election, rather than block Labor\u2019s policies. Greens voters supported passing by 55\u201321.<\/p>\n<h2>Labor keeps narrow lead in Morgan<\/h2>\n<p>A national <a href=\"https:\/\/www.roymorgan.com\/findings\/federal-voting-intention-virtually-unchanged-this-week-with-alp-50-5-marginally-ahead-of-the-coalition-49-5\">Morgan poll<\/a>, conducted September 16\u201322 from a sample of 1,662 people, gave Labor a 50.5\u201349.5 lead, unchanged from the September 9\u201315 Morgan poll.<\/p>\n<p>Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (steady), 32% Labor (up 1.5), 12.5% Greens (steady), 5% One Nation (down 0.5), 9.5% independents (down 0.5) and 3.5% others (down 0.5).<\/p>\n<p>The headline figure is based on respondent preferences. By 2022 election preference flows, Labor led by an unchanged 52\u201348.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><div data-type=\"_mgwidget\" data-widget-id=\"1660802\">\r\n<\/div>\r\n<script>(function(w,q){w[q]=w[q]||[];w[q].push([\"_mgc.load\"])})(window,\"_mgq\");\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/kamala-harris-the-slight-favourite-to-win-us-election-as-she-narrowly-leads-in-key-states-239735\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The US presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver\u2019s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 49.3\u201346.0 \u2013 a slight &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=108803\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8629],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-108803","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-u-s","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108803","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=108803"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108803\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=108803"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=108803"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=108803"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}