{"id":109397,"date":"2024-10-02T05:35:49","date_gmt":"2024-10-01T22:35:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=109397"},"modified":"2024-10-02T05:35:49","modified_gmt":"2024-10-01T22:35:49","slug":"israel-lebanon-and-the-wider-middle-east-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=109397","title":{"rendered":"Israel, Lebanon, and the wider Middle east war"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"zephr-anchor\">\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">Israel has begun a military invasion of Lebanon it said <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/2024\/09\/30\/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-hamas-war-news-gaza\/\">would be \u201climited,\u201d<\/a> following days of bombing campaigns near and within the capital, Beirut. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">The Israeli military <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2024\/10\/01\/world\/israel-lebanon-hezbollah\/here-are-the-latest-developments?smid=url-share\">said<\/a> that it had moved one army division, typically numbering around 10,000 troops, to the Lebanese border and told Lebanese civilians in about two dozen villages in the area to move north.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">That invasion marks a dangerous new phase in the long conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed Islamist militant organization and Lebanese political party that has fought Israel since its founding decades ago. Israel has recently escalated its attacks on Hezbollah, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/world-politics\/2023\/10\/28\/23935157\/hezbollah-lebanon-israel-hamas-palestine-gaza-iran-militia-group\">assassinating the group\u2019s reclusive leader<\/a>, Hassan Nasrallah, in a bombing in a Beirut suburb on Friday after reportedly launching a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/world-politics\/372399\/pager-explosions-lebanon-syria-hezbollah-israel-gaza\">series of attacks on thousands of mobile devices<\/a> used by members of Hezbollah throughout Lebanon. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">Israel\u2019s latest operations have been costly: More than <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2024\/sep\/30\/israel-strikes-yemen-lebanon-attack-hezbollah-middle-east-war-latest\">1,000 Lebanese have been killed, 6,000 wounded<\/a>, and as many as a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/ckgveeyrl47o\">million displaced<\/a> in recent weeks, according to Lebanese government officials. Hezbollah\u2019s recent attacks on Israel \u2014 largely missile strikes \u2014 have meanwhile left at least <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jns.org\/idf-probing-cause-of-sirens-in-central-israel\/\">eight<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2024\/09\/25\/g-s1-24452\/hezbollah-fires-missile-tel-aviv\">people<\/a> wounded in the last week.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">Although the two sides have fought on and off over the decades, Hezbollah has been engaged in more intense fighting with Israel since the October 7 attacks on Israel by Hamas last year. Hezbollah has vowed to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2024\/world\/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-hamas\/here-are-the-latest-developments-on-strikes-in-lebanon?smid=url-share\">continue its missile strikes<\/a> into Israeli territory until Israel agrees to a ceasefire in Gaza, where at least <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/gaza-death-toll-how-many-palestinians-has-israels-campaign-killed-2024-07-25\/\">40,000 Palestinians<\/a> have been killed. Israel has shown no sign it is contemplating ending its operations, either. The country\u2019s leaders have said they want to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/today-explained-podcast\/352059\/why-israel-cant-destroy-hamas\">completely eradicate Hamas<\/a>, and Israel\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2024\/sep\/30\/us-looks-unable-to-talk-netanyahu-out-of-planned-invasion-of-lebanon\">defense minister said Monday<\/a> that the \u201cnext stage in the war against Hezbollah will begin soon.\u201d <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">Key allies also seem unable to end the fighting. The United States reportedly had a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/09\/30\/us\/politics\/us-israel-lebanon-hezbollah.html\">Hezbollah-Israel peace plan that it has now abandoned<\/a>. While the US has publicly told Israel it should try to deescalate the situation, the US <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2024\/09\/30\/us-israel-military-hezbollah-00181797\">reportedly privately offered Israel support<\/a> for its Hezbollah strategy. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">Meanwhile, Iranian officials have responded to Israel\u2019s recent attacks with a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/news\/world\/iran-launched-ballistic-missile-attack-israel-rcna173434\">ballistic missile strike<\/a> on Tuesday. Iran\u2019s mission to the UN suggested the country did not have further attacks in store, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Iran_UN\/status\/1841162849286308106\">writing on X<\/a> that the country\u2019s \u201cresponse \u2026 has been duly carried out,\u201d though it added the threat: \u201cShould the Zionist regime dare to respond or commit further acts of malevolence, a subsequent and crushing response will ensue.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">Here is what we do know so far about what has happened, and what\u2019s likely to come next.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">The animosity between Hezbollah and Israel is decades old; in fact, Hezbollah formed in <a href=\"https:\/\/merip.org\/1982\/09\/the-war-in-lebanon\/\">1982 in southern Lebanon<\/a> as a response to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/opinions\/2022\/6\/4\/a-cosmic-stink-israels-invasion-of-lebanon-40-years-on\">Israel\u2019<\/a>s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/archive\/politics\/1982\/09\/03\/war-casualties-put-at-48000-in-lebanon\/cf593941-6067-4239-a453-71bdcaf9eba0\/\">disastrous invasion<\/a>, which killed tens of thousands of Lebanese, and subsequent decades-long occupation of that area. Hezbollah <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2000\/may\/24\/israelandthepalestinians.lebanon\">waged guerilla warfare against Israeli troops for decades<\/a>, and Israel finally left in 2000 following years of brutal fighting and a UN resolution requiring it to do so. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">The two sides settled into a conflict that simmered until 2006. After Hezbollah killed eight Israeli soldiers and captured two others, Israel responded with a counterattack that led to a short, bloody war in which <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/echoes-of-2006-israel-hezbollah-and-the-potential-for-regional-war\/\">more than 1,000 Lebanese and 160 Israelis were killed<\/a>. A UN-brokered ceasefire ended that conflict, but fighting continued for years \u2014 and it intensified again in the wake of Hamas\u2019s October 7 attack.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">Hezbollah is allied with Hamas, and, starting on October 8, 2023, began firing major salvos into northern Israel, eventually displacing around <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/cglkkrj94ldo\">60,000 residents there<\/a>. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">Initially, with Israel focused on uprooting Hamas in Gaza, fighting along its northern border with Lebanon was limited to tit-for-tat strikes. But starting in September, Israel escalated the fighting significantly, first by attacking Hezbollah members and leadership with exploding electronics, then bombing Hezbollah\u2019s stronghold in southern Lebanon and the outskirts of Beirut. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">Ever since the October 7 attack, observers have warned about the possibility that Israel\u2019s war with Gaza might spread to encompass Hezbollah and, perhaps, the entire region. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">It\u2019s not clear if that\u2019s what\u2019s happening now or what a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah might look like. Despite Hezbollah\u2019s previous ability to stand up to Israeli firepower, it\u2019s also not clear how it will fare with its communication networks disrupted by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/world-politics\/372772\/hezbollah-israel-pagers-radios-lebanon\">the recent pager and walkie-talkie attacks<\/a> \u2014 which Israel has not claimed but is widely assumed to be behind. What\u2019s more, a significant number of mid-level and senior Hezbollah leaders were killed in that attack and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/israel\/373428\/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-hamas-gaza\">subsequent bombings<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--block-placement _80slsf1 _80slsf0 duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p><h2 class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup\"><strong>What might Hezbollah\u2019s next move be?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">Hezbollah is considered the most widely armed and powerful militia group in the Middle East. It boasts a vast weapons arsenal, including as many as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2018\/9\/20\/hezbollah-to-israel-precision-missiles-now-obtained\">120,000 missiles<\/a>, and has deployed it with increasing success inside Israel\u2019s borders since the war in Gaza began. Israel <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/hezbollahs-tunnels-flexible-command-weather-israels-deadly-blows-2024-09-25\/\">claims to have destroyed thousands of the group\u2019s rockets and shells<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/people\/natan-sachs\/\">Natan Sachs<\/a>, director of the Middle East policy program at the Brookings Institution, says Israel may have destroyed some of Hezbollah\u2019s precision munitions.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">Still, Hezbollah has demonstrated advanced military tactics such as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pbs.org\/newshour\/world\/hezbollah-introduces-new-weapons-tactics-against-israel-as-war-in-gaza-drags-on\">using drones to fire missiles at key Israeli targets<\/a> and effective intelligence capabilities including <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.google\/technology\/safety-security\/tool-of-first-resort-israel-hamas-war-in-cyber\/\">digital espionage<\/a>. And recent Israeli attacks on Lebanese mobile devices and the assassination of Nasrallah haven\u2019t completely wiped out that capacity. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">\u201cThere was kind of this gleefulness about Hezbollah being completely disabled and destroyed now because all the leadership\u2019s gone,\u201d said <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/phillipsmyth?lang=en\">Phillip Smyth<\/a>, an independent analyst focusing on the Middle East and terrorism. \u201cThat\u2019s not how it works.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">But the success of recent Israeli attacks has called into question the extent of Hezbollah\u2019s capabilities \u2014 and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/09\/29\/world\/middleeast\/iran-hezbollah-israel-nasrallah.html\">reportedly shaken Iranian leadership<\/a>. In that sense, Hezbollah may have limited options going forward, even though it had previously pledged not to relent until a ceasefire in Gaza is reached. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">\u201cHezbollah turns out to be less capable, militarily, than I expected,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/tcf.org\/experts\/thanassis-cambanis\/\">Thanassis Cambanis<\/a>, a senior fellow and director of the think tank Century International, said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">Cambanis and other experts believed that Hezbollah had the technology to effectively strike military targets in Israel, as well as civilian infrastructure in Haifa and even Tel Aviv, a major population center. But if it was willing and able, it seems it would have done so by now.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">\u201cIt turns out that Hezbollah wasn\u2019t willing to use its most powerful military options, or that it couldn\u2019t because Israel was able to infiltrate or neutralize Hezbollah capabilities,\u201d Cambanis said. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">The group\u2019s second-in-command, Naim Qassem, sought to dispel doubts about Hezbollah\u2019s capabilities in a speech on Monday, though he also seemed to suggest Hezbollah is currently on the defensive.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">\u201cIsrael was not able to reach our military capabilities, and what its media says about hitting most of the medium and long-range capabilities is a dream they have not achieved and will never achieve,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=DCVhaCv-BSQ\">Qassem said<\/a>. \u201cWe will face any possibility and we are ready if the Israelis decide to enter by land and the resistance forces are ready for a ground engagement.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">He added that an announcement will be <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxnews.com\/world\/hezbollah-says-choose-nasrallahs-successor-at-earliest-opportunity\">made in the coming days<\/a> about Nasrallah\u2019s successor, who Smyth said will most likely be <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jpost.com\/breaking-news\/article-822451\">Hashem Safieddine<\/a>, Nasrallah\u2019s handpicked heir and cousin. Safieddine currently oversees Hezbollah\u2019s political affairs and sits on the council managing the group\u2019s military operations.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--block-placement _80slsf1 _80slsf0 duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p><h2 class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup\"><strong>What is Iran\u2019s role here?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">Tuesday\u2019s missile barrage is Iran\u2019s most escalatory move since April, when the regime sent around 300 missiles and rockets toward Israel, nearly all of which were intercepted by US and regional partner forces, as well as Israel\u2019s own air defenses.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">For the most part, Iran asserts its regional power and carries out foreign policy goals \u2014 primarily, antagonizing Israel \u2014 by funding and providing resources to a network of militia groups. Those include Hamas, Yemen\u2019s Houthi rebels, Shia militia groups in Iraq and Syria, and, of course, Hezbollah.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">\u201cIran\u2019s relationship with Hezbollah is really like two NATO allies,\u201d Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/world-politics\/2023\/10\/14\/23917078\/israel-hamas-war-gaza-iran-hezbollah-khamenei-lebanon\">told Vox<\/a> last October. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">However, while NATO allies pledge to defend one another from attacks, Iran has been reluctant to be actively involved in a war against Israel; a drone attack on Israeli territory in April, following the assassination of an Iranian military leader in an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus, Syria, was obviously telegraphed and minimally destructive. And the July assassination of <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/iran-hamas-israel-30968a7acb31cd8b259de9650014b779\">Ismail Haniyeh<\/a>, the former Hamas leader, while he was in Tehran prompted no obvious retaliation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">That\u2019s not to say that Iran has no appetite for conflict: \u201cThe appetite for them was quite high, to be perfectly frank,\u201d Smyth said. \u201cThey just thought that they could micromanage this so that it wouldn\u2019t get to this point. And the Israelis clearly called their bluff.\u201d <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">Now, it seems, Iran has offered a show of force \u2014 but there are limits to how far the country will go.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">\u201cEscalation could come, but [the Iranians] need to thread a needle,\u201d Sachs said. That involves trying to show solidarity with Hezbollah and that Iran is capable of attack, without getting into an extended war with both Israel and the US. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--block-placement _80slsf1 _80slsf0 duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p><h2 class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup\"><strong>Is Israel\u2019s Lebanon campaign a prelude to a larger ground invasion?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">Israel\u2019s plan for its \u201climited\u201d ground invasion involves rooting out Hezbollah along Lebanon\u2019s southern border with Israel to neutralize the threat to Israeli communities nearby, the <a href=\"https:\/\/wapo.st\/3XO98KS\">Washington Post reported<\/a>. So far, the Israeli military <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2024\/10\/01\/world\/israel-lebanon-hezbollah\/here-are-the-latest-developments?smid=url-share\">said<\/a> it has conducted \u201climited, localized and targeted raids\u201d along the border.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">But there\u2019s a fear that Israel\u2019s narrow mission could balloon into something bigger \u2014 much as it already has in Gaza, where Israel\u2019s stated operational objective of eliminating Hamas has given way to widespread destruction of civilian life. If the conflict with Hezbollah does grow, that would likely spur fierce Lebanese resistance.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">\u201cAn invasion of Lebanon will mobilize Lebanese as a national issue to resist, including the many Lebanese who don\u2019t support Israel but also oppose another Israeli invasion and occupation,\u201d Cambanis said. \u201cPerhaps in the short term Israel can achieve some of its aims by pursuing the logic of total war, but it will only make Israel and the entire Middle East less safe.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">The Lebanese government \u2014 or what passes for it, since an unelected caretaker government has been in place since 2022 \u2014 has clearly demonstrated that the country is not interested in yet another war with Israel. Caretaker <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/lebanon-hold-session-elect-president-after-ceasefire-caretaker-pm-says-2024-09-30\/\">Prime Minister Najib Mikati announced Monday<\/a> that his government is prepared to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war. That resolution would deploy the Lebanese army to the country\u2019s south to crack down on Hezbollah and require Israel to pull out of southern Lebanon. Now that Israel has entered Lebanon, it\u2019s unclear whether Mikati will trigger the resolution.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">The conflict has already taken a significant toll on Lebanese civilians and it could only get worse from here. In anticipation, Lebanon and the United Nations petitioned for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2024\/10\/01\/world\/israel-lebanon-hezbollah\/23dd80ed-e9dd-5ee3-a552-622fbac870f6?smid=url-share\">$426 million<\/a> in humanitarian aid on Tuesday to help those affected in the next three months.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">Lebanon has already struggled under decades of war and government dysfunction, as well as an influx of Syrian refugees that have stretched already-limited state capacity. Now, Israel\u2019s bombing attacks and invasion have displaced around 1 million Lebanese from the south of the country, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/ckgveeyrl47o\">according to Mikati<\/a>, and the Lebanese government says <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-gaza-news-09-30-2024-83ea5f243688f309754ec74850de4238\">at least 1,000 people have been killed in the past two weeks<\/a>. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--block-placement _80slsf1 _80slsf0 duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p><h2 class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup\"><strong>What\u2019s next for the Gaza-Hezbollah-Israel conflict overall?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">There seems to be no end in sight for the widening conflict, for several reasons: US unwillingness to restrain Israel by restricting weapons shipments; Hezbollah\u2019s stated position that they will not stop attacks on Israel until a ceasefire with Gaza is reached; and the repeated breakdown of Gaza ceasefire talks.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">The US and France did attempt to negotiate a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2024\/sep\/26\/lebanon-temporary-ceasefire-plan-hezbollah-israel\">21-day ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel last week<\/a>, but \u201cIsrael (Netanyahu) has flat out rejected the US-French 21 day ceasefire proposal in Lebanon,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/history.stanford.edu\/people\/joel-beinin\">Joel Beinin<\/a>, a professor of Middle East history at Stanford University, said. As Hezbollah also frames its attacks as support for Gaza, it most likely won\u2019t agree to a ceasefire as long as Gaza is still under attack.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">As for the US, there seems to be almost no effort to truly restrain Israel following the failed ceasefire attempt. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">\u201cThe United States is just not driving events,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.crisisgroup.org\/who-we-are\/people\/michael-wahid-hanna\">Michael Hanna<\/a>, director of the US program at the International Crisis Group, said. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">\u201cWe support Israel\u2019s right to defend itself against Hezbollah and all Iranian backed terror groups. Of course, we know that mission creep can be a risk and we will keep discussing that with the Israelis. And ultimately, a diplomatic resolution is the only way to achieve lasting stability and security across the Israel-Lebanon border,\u201d a spokesperson from the National Security Council told Vox in an email. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">The US could, however, do more to deter escalation; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sanders.senate.gov\/in-the-news\/bernie-sanders-preparing-resolutions-to-block-20b-in-us-arms-sales-to-israel\/\">Sen. Bernie Sanders <\/a>(I-VT) has introduced <a href=\"https:\/\/www.huffpost.com\/entry\/bernie-sanders-resolution-forces-vote-arms-sales-israel-gaza_n_66f5b5a4e4b0b663235fb66d\">a resolution to block arms sales to Israel<\/a>, on the premise that the arms transfers violate international law, although that is unlikely to pass in Congress.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">Although Lebanon is the current site of the crisis, Israeli military operations are ongoing in Gaza, where <a href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/middle-east\/20240711-more-than-186-000-dead-in-gaza-how-credible-are-the-estimates-published-on-the-lancet\">as many as 186,000 people may have been killed in the past year of fighting<\/a>, according to the Lancet, a medical journal. (Many media sources put that figure at 40,000, but an accurate count is difficult given that much of Gaza is destroyed and fighting is ongoing.) Medical infrastructure has been destroyed, and there are many reported instances of communicable disease and malnutrition. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">\u201cPeople are getting killed in Gaza daily, the humanitarian situation is dire,\u201d Hanna said. \u201cLife is disrupted and on hold \u2014 there are no schools, there\u2019s no functioning society. There\u2019s nothing.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">Israel appears to be emboldened by its victories, and Hezbollah appears reluctant to launch large-scale attacks on Israel. The US has maintained its support for Israel and is sending <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/us-troops-middle-east-israel-hezbollah-e37e2dbef573e33c0f8fb6a8103f27f1\">more troops to the region<\/a>. Iran has <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/iran-israel-mideast-tensions-hezbollah-lebanon-analysis-5020aeed3c88790d5483fdf40c9ba392\">issued some threats<\/a>, but hasn\u2019t yet been much of an active participant in the fighting. All that makes it impossible to say where the war goes from here. Cambanis, however, predicts the worst.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixh lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg0\">\u201cThere\u2019s a dangerous and delusional march to war on Iran,\u201d he said. \u201cI would have liked to rely on the US government to restrain Israel, but it\u2019s clear that the Biden administration supports Israel\u2019s widening gyre of escalation.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"_1tzd3in0 _1agbrixx\">\n<p class=\"_1tzd3in1\">You\u2019ve read <!-- -->1<!-- --> article<!-- --> in the last month<\/p>\n<div class=\"_1tzd3in2\">\n<div class=\"_1tzd3in3\">\n<p class=\"_1tzd3in4\">Here at Vox, we believe in helping everyone understand our complicated world, so that we can all help to shape it. Our mission is to create clear, accessible journalism to empower understanding and action.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1tzd3in4\">If you share our vision, please consider supporting our work by becoming a <i>Vox Member<\/i>. Your support ensures Vox a stable, independent source of funding to underpin our journalism. If you are not ready to become a Member, even small contributions are meaningful in supporting a sustainable model for journalism.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1tzd3in4\">Thank you for being part of our community.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"_1tzd3in5\"><img alt=\"Swati Sharma\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"59\" height=\"69\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"1\" style=\"color:transparent\" srcset=\"\/_next\/image?url=%2Fstatic-assets%2Fheadshots%2Fswati.png&amp;w=64&amp;q=75 1x, \/_next\/image?url=%2Fstatic-assets%2Fheadshots%2Fswati.png&amp;w=128&amp;q=75 2x\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/_next\/image?url=%2Fstatic-assets%2Fheadshots%2Fswati.png&amp;w=128&amp;q=75\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"_1tzd3in7\">\n<p class=\"_1tzd3in8\">Swati Sharma<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1tzd3in9\">Vox Editor-in-Chief<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><div data-type=\"_mgwidget\" data-widget-id=\"1660802\">\r\n<\/div>\r\n<script>(function(w,q){w[q]=w[q]||[];w[q].push([\"_mgc.load\"])})(window,\"_mgq\");\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/israel\/375125\/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-iran-invasion-gaza\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Israel has begun a military invasion of Lebanon it said would be \u201climited,\u201d following days of bombing campaigns near and within the capital, Beirut. The Israeli military said that it &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=109397\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-109397","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-world","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109397","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=109397"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109397\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=109397"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=109397"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=109397"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}