{"id":110913,"date":"2024-10-06T03:36:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-05T20:36:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=110913"},"modified":"2024-10-06T03:36:00","modified_gmt":"2024-10-05T20:36:00","slug":"tropical-storm-milton-is-expected-to-bring-heavy-rain-to-florida","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=110913","title":{"rendered":"Tropical Storm Milton Is Expected to Bring Heavy Rain to Florida"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p>By the time Hurricane Helene reached western North Carolina a week ago, causing devastating floods, it was no longer a hurricane.<\/p>\n<p>This hints at the challenges in alerting the public about the risks that storms can bring inland, and also to the changing understanding of what makes these storms so dangerous.<\/p>\n<div>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">\u201cWe\u2019re realizing more than ever how deadly inland flooding is,\u201d said <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/ncics.org\/people\/carl-schreck\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Carl Schreck<\/a>, a hurricane researcher at North Carolina State University, who was in his home near Asheville, N.C., when Helene struck.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">Before a hurricane hits, news headlines usually highlight the category of a storm and its wind speeds, he said. But after the storm hits, the headlines tend to be about the rain.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">That familiar <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/09\/26\/weather\/hurricanes-category.html\" title=\"\">five-point category rating<\/a>, known to experts as the <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/aboutsshws.php\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Saffir-Simpson scale<\/a>, is the main way that the public understands a hurricane\u2019s strength.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">But the category rating is based only on wind speeds. It <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/aboutsshws.php#:~:text=This%20scale%20does%20not%20take%20into%20account%20other%20potentially%20deadly%20hazards%20such%20as%20storm%20surge%2C%20rainfall%20flooding%2C%20and%20tornadoes.\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">leaves out<\/a> all of the other ways hurricanes can do damage, like storm surges, tornadoes and rain-caused flooding.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">These other dangers can be more deadly than wind: Of 455 deaths directly caused by hurricanes from 2013 to 2023, 12 percent were caused by wind and 11 percent by storm surges (where wind pushes seawater toward the shore).<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">But 55 percent \u2014 252 deaths \u2014 were caused by flooding due to rain, according to the National Hurricane Center.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">As the climate warms, Americans can <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/article\/flooding-climate-change.html\" title=\"\">expect to see<\/a> <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/08\/29\/climate\/climate-change-hurricanes.html\" title=\"\">wetter, stronger and slower-moving<\/a> storms that may be more likely to intrude <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.climatecentral.org\/climate-matters\/climate-change-and-inland-flooding\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">farther inland<\/a>. Inland populations are also generally poorer and <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/data-graphics\/map-flood-insurance-coverage-counties-hit-hurricane-helene-rcna173619\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">less likely to have flood insurance<\/a> compared with their coastal counterparts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">Yet there is no simple, widely used numerical scale to communicate a hurricane\u2019s potential to cause flooding, as there is to communicate its wind speed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">Some scientists have developed <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/journals.ametsoc.org\/view\/journals\/bams\/101\/3\/BAMS-D-19-0075.A.xml\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">new metrics<\/a> to try to capture a hurricane\u2019s rain risk. But Mr. Schreck, who recently <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/journals.ametsoc.org\/view\/journals\/clim\/37\/14\/JCLI-D-23-0327.1.xml\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">developed one such measure<\/a>, said the National Hurricane Center understandably does not want to confuse the public with multiple rating scales.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">Experts still hope to grow public awareness beyond the category rating. \u201cWe need to rethink how we name, categorize and talk about these things because too many people are dying,\u201d said <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/climate.ncsu.edu\/people\/kathie-dello\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Kathie Dello<\/a>, the state climatologist of North Carolina.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">When it comes to big storms, \u201cI never think about the category,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">Hurricane Florence \u2014 one of the wettest and most destructive hurricanes to hit North Carolina \u2014 made landfall as a Category 1. And <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Tropical_Storm_Fred_(2021)#North_Carolina_and_South_Carolina\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Fred<\/a>, a storm that caused <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/climate.ncsu.edu\/blog\/2021\/08\/rapid-reaction-fred-fosters-floods-in-western-nc\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">record-breaking flooding<\/a> in western North Carolina in 2021, was a tropical storm, not a hurricane.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">Even \u201cdowngraded\u201d to a tropical storm, Helene was still deadly: Its <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/climate-environment\/2024\/09\/26\/hurricane-helene-storm-size-miles\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">unusually large size<\/a> meant that it took longer for the storm to pass overhead, and so it rained longer. As the mountain slopes drove the storm\u2019s moisture upward, it condensed into even more rain that funneled down valleys, leading to <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/climate.ncsu.edu\/blog\/2024\/09\/rapid-reaction-historic-flooding-follows-helene-in-western-nc\/#:~:text=The%20New%20Flood%20of%20Record\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">record-breaking flooding<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">Officials warned ahead of time about the risk of extreme rainfall and flash flooding. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration put out <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/news-release\/communities-need-to-prepare-for-catastrophic-life-threatening-inland-flooding-from-helene-even-well\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">a rare news release<\/a> warning of \u201ccatastrophic, life-threatening inland flooding.\u201d And the National Hurricane Center supplements its category scale with a lot more information about different hurricane hazards, including rainfall.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">But in spite of all these warnings, the human toll remained catastrophic.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"live-blog-post-content css-ebsgz5 e1gnsphs0\" id=\"link-3edcd02f\"><span><strong class=\"css-8qgvsz ebyp5n10\">A storm by any other name<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">Around 10 days before Helene struck, a different tropical storm <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/climate.ncsu.edu\/blog\/2024\/09\/rapid-reaction-unnamed-storm-unleashes-torrential-rain-in-eastern-nc\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">caused extensive flooding<\/a> in southeastern North Carolina. That storm fell short of the wind speeds required of a hurricane. It didn\u2019t receive an official name or a category rating, and was termed <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/ilm\/2024PTC8\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">\u201cNot having a name was a problem,\u201d said Ms. Dello, because it made it harder to communicate its risks to the public.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">But the unnamed storm had <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/ilm\/2024PTC8\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">severe<\/a> <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/climate.ncsu.edu\/blog\/2024\/09\/rapid-reaction-unnamed-storm-unleashes-torrential-rain-in-eastern-nc\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">effects<\/a>. Some locations saw around 20 inches of rain. There were flash floods on Carolina Beach. Parts of Brunswick County saw extreme flooding that lasted for days. Some roads were washed out. One river had its second-highest levels on record, exceeded only by Hurricane Florence\u2019s flood levels.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">Weather experts have gotten much better over the years at forecasting major storms \u2014 hurricanes or not. But they can\u2019t easily overcome how entrenched the hurricane category system is when it comes to the public\u2019s sense of risk.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">The National Weather Service does provide an <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/qpf\/ero.php\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">excessive rainfall outlook<\/a>, which predicts the risk of extreme rainfall in a given location with four ratings: marginal, slight, moderate and high risk.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">The high risk ratings are issued on only about 16 days annually across the U.S., said Alex Lamers, who leads forecasting at the N.W.S.\u2019s Weather Prediction Center. But those days account for 36 percent of the deaths and 80 percent of the damages caused by flooding in the U.S., he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">\u201cIt\u2019s about the strongest bell that we can ring,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">For Helene, the Weather Service issued a high risk rating around Asheville about two days before the worst flooding started.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">\u201cIt was a really remarkable forecast,\u201d Ms. Dello said of the warning\u2019s accuracy. But she said the forecast alone isn\u2019t sufficient. To be more actionable, it needs to be translated into how much damage might happen on the ground \u2014 the threat to lives and infrastructure.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"live-blog-post-content css-ebsgz5 e1gnsphs0\" id=\"link-3e7a433e\"><span><strong class=\"css-8qgvsz ebyp5n10\">A false sense of security<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">Reports have referred to Helene as a \u201c1 in 1,000 year storm.\u201d This term is essentially a <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/hdsc.nws.noaa.gov\/pfds\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">statistical estimate by NOAA<\/a> based on past rainfall in a location. It\u2019s used by city planners, engineers and floodplain managers to design for future floods.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">But these estimates may provide a false sense of security. They are based on the past, and as the climate changes, the past becomes a poorer predictor of the future.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">As a <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43247-021-00248-x\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">2021 study<\/a> in Europe found, climate change can increase the intensity of the most extreme flooding while also decreasing the intensity of moderate flooding. This means that recent historical experience may downplay the risk of what is to come.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">In Asheville, a storm that occurs on average once in a thousand years is predicted to bring <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/climate.ncsu.edu\/blog\/2024\/09\/rapid-reaction-historic-flooding-follows-helene-in-western-nc\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">11.4 inches of rain<\/a> in three days. But during Helene, the airport\u2019s weather station recorded nearly 14 inches of rain in that duration, according to the <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/climate.ncsu.edu\/blog\/2024\/09\/rapid-reaction-historic-flooding-follows-helene-in-western-nc\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">North Carolina State Climate Office<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">The data that NOAA bases these predictions on is also out of date, Ms. Dello said. NOAA uses weather observations <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/media\/owp\/oh\/hdsc\/docs\/Atlas14_Volume2.pdf\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">up to the year 2000<\/a> in most places, which leaves out over two decades of storms. And it does not account for climate change, which is expected to make extreme rainfall more common.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\"><a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/news-release\/update-to-us-precipitation-frequency-standards-now-accounts-for-climate-trends\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Updated rainfall estimates<\/a> will be available starting in 2026, NOAA says, accounting for rainfall changes in a warming climate.<\/p>\n<p class=\"live-blog-post-content css-feblkd evys1bk0\">But even then, it will take a lot of work to make these risks easy for people to understand.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><div data-type=\"_mgwidget\" data-widget-id=\"1660802\">\r\n<\/div>\r\n<script>(function(w,q){w[q]=w[q]||[];w[q].push([\"_mgc.load\"])})(window,\"_mgq\");\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2024\/10\/05\/weather\/tropical-storm-milton-hurricane\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By the time Hurricane Helene reached western North Carolina a week ago, causing devastating floods, it was no longer a hurricane. This hints at the challenges in alerting the public &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=110913\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8629],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-110913","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-u-s","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110913","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=110913"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110913\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=110913"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=110913"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=110913"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}