{"id":122221,"date":"2024-11-05T05:37:02","date_gmt":"2024-11-04T22:37:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=122221"},"modified":"2024-11-05T05:37:02","modified_gmt":"2024-11-04T22:37:02","slug":"trumps-lead-over-harris-in-betting-market-erodes-as-platforms-tighten-odds-us-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=122221","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s lead over Harris in betting market erodes as platforms tighten odds | US news"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Betting markets have narrowed significantly on the eve of Tuesday\u2019s presidential election, eroding <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/donaldtrump\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">Donald Trump<\/a>\u2019s lead over Kamala Harris as Americans cast their vote.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">The former president and his allies have touted the betting market forecasts as more accurate than <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/ng-interactive\/2024\/nov\/04\/presidential-polls-today-election-donald-trump-kamala-harris-latest\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">traditional polling<\/a> in recent weeks, as the top platforms put him way ahead of Harris.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">As election day nears, however, Trump\u2019s victory odds have faded, and Harris even retook the lead on one platform this weekend.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Betting markets have surged in popularity during this election campaign, with prominent apps like Polymarket and Kalshi surging up the app stores.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Many betting market forecasts for who was most likely to win the election also diverged from typical opinion polls. While the polls pointed to an incredibly close contest for the White House, a few weeks ago betting platforms put Trump clearly ahead.<\/p>\n<p><gu-island name=\"InteractiveBlockComponent\" priority=\"critical\" deferuntil=\"idle\" props=\"{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/interactive.guim.co.uk\/uploader\/embed\/2024\/11\/archive-zip\/giv-45593C2zgwrGT0OA\/&quot;,&quot;scriptUrl&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/interactive.guim.co.uk\/embed\/iframe-wrapper\/0.1\/boot.js&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;a graph showing election betting markets&quot;,&quot;format&quot;:{&quot;design&quot;:0,&quot;display&quot;:0,&quot;theme&quot;:0},&quot;elementId&quot;:&quot;b9bc4fcd-70d8-4a2c-a8af-0113277a8ee7&quot;,&quot;isMainMedia&quot;:false}\"><\/p>\n<figure id=\"b9bc4fcd-70d8-4a2c-a8af-0113277a8ee7\" data-alt=\"a graph showing election betting markets\" data-testid=\"interactive-element-a%20graph%20showing%20election%20betting%20markets\" data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" class=\"element element-interactive element--inline element-inline dcr-w422y2\"><a data-name=\"placeholder\" href=\"https:\/\/interactive.guim.co.uk\/uploader\/embed\/2024\/11\/archive-zip\/giv-45593C2zgwrGT0OA\/\" class=\"dcr-1eupayo\">a graph showing election betting markets<\/a><\/figure>\n<p><\/gu-island><\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">But Trump\u2019s chances have apparently dwindled. Polymarket put them at 58% on Monday, down from 67% last week; Kalshi put them at 53%, down from 65%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Another platform priced Harris\u2019s odds as greater than Trump\u2019s for the first time in almost a month. The Democrat had a 53% chance of victory, according to PredictIt, which gave Trump a 51% chance.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Bets in these markets are bids on political futures contracts. Buying a contract \u2013 like the prospect of a Harris, or Trump, presidency \u2013 drives the price of that contract, or the perceived probability of it happening, higher.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"4b7d2406-bace-4866-9ed6-f01557f764e2\" data-spacefinder-role=\"richLink\" data-spacefinder-type=\"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement\" class=\" dcr-1your1i\"><gu-island name=\"RichLinkComponent\" priority=\"feature\" deferuntil=\"idle\" props=\"{&quot;richLinkIndex&quot;:9,&quot;element&quot;:{&quot;_type&quot;:&quot;model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement&quot;,&quot;prefix&quot;:&quot;Related: &quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Opinion polls have Harris and Trump locked in a tight race. \u2018Gambling polls\u2019 say otherwise&quot;,&quot;elementId&quot;:&quot;4b7d2406-bace-4866-9ed6-f01557f764e2&quot;,&quot;role&quot;:&quot;richLink&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2024\/oct\/31\/election-betting-presidential-odds-polling&quot;},&quot;ajaxUrl&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/api.nextgen.guardianapps.co.uk&quot;,&quot;format&quot;:{&quot;design&quot;:0,&quot;display&quot;:0,&quot;theme&quot;:0}}\"\/><\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Should you have turned to Polymarket on Monday, for example, and bet on Trump, you would receive $1 for every 58 cents you wagered if he wins the election. If you bet on Harris, on the same platform, on the same day, you would receive $1 for every 43 cents wagered if she wins.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">A striking poll in Iowa that unexpectedly put <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/kamala-harris\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">Harris<\/a> ahead of Trump sent shock waves through America\u2019s poll-watchers this weekend. Betting market experts say participants consider a range of factors when placing a wager, including the results of such surveys.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Questions have been raised in recent weeks over activity in the betting markets. When it emerged that one man had wagered more than $30m on a Trump victory on Polymarket, both he and the platform stressed it was not an attempt to manipulate the market.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">\u201cMy intent is just making money,\u201d the man, who called himself Th\u00e9o, told the Wall Street Journal, claiming he had \u201cabsolutely no political agenda\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><div data-type=\"_mgwidget\" data-widget-id=\"1660802\">\r\n<\/div>\r\n<script>(function(w,q){w[q]=w[q]||[];w[q].push([\"_mgc.load\"])})(window,\"_mgq\");\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2024\/nov\/04\/presidential-election-betting-odds-polling\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Betting markets have narrowed significantly on the eve of Tuesday\u2019s presidential election, eroding Donald Trump\u2019s lead over Kamala Harris as Americans cast their vote. The former president and his allies &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=122221\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8629],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-122221","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-u-s","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/122221","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=122221"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/122221\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=122221"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=122221"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=122221"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}