{"id":122508,"date":"2024-11-06T00:06:27","date_gmt":"2024-11-05T17:06:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=122508"},"modified":"2024-11-06T00:06:27","modified_gmt":"2024-11-05T17:06:27","slug":"the-polls-are-close-the-results-might-not-be","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=122508","title":{"rendered":"The Polls Are Close. The Results Might Not Be."},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-0\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">These two things are true about the presidential race: <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2024\/us\/elections\/polls-president.html\" title=\"\">The polls currently show<\/a> Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump effectively tied. And close polls do not necessarily mean there will be a close result.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">This may feel counterintuitive, but the fact is that we are just a very normal polling error away from either candidate landing a decisive victory, especially in the Electoral College.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">This is a point my colleague Nate Cohn <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/11\/04\/upshot\/polls-trump-harris-election.html\" title=\"\">has made regularly<\/a> in his election race updates over the last few weeks. But it bears repeating, because a lopsided result when there is an expectation of only razor-thin margins could <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/31\/us\/politics\/trump-harris-partisan-polls.html\" title=\"\">further fan distrust<\/a> in the polls and in the electoral process itself.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cYou can have a close election in the popular vote and somebody could break 315 Electoral College votes, which will not look close,\u201d said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. \u201cOr you could get a popular vote that is five points\u201d apart, he added, \u201cwhich is, by today\u2019s standards, a landslide \u2014 a word no one has used this year.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-1\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Since 1998, election polls in presidential, House, Senate and governor\u2019s races have diverged from the final vote tally by an average of six percentage points, according to <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/2022-election-polling-accuracy\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">an analysis from FiveThirtyEight<\/a>. But in the 2022 midterm elections, that average error was 4.8 points, making it the most accurate polling cycle in the last quarter of a century. If polls were off this year, in either direction, by the same margin, the winning candidate would score a decisive victory.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Based on where the polling averages stood on Monday, if the polls are underestimating Ms. Harris by 4.8 points in each of the seven swing states, she would win every one of them, and a total of 319 electoral votes, compared with only 219 for Mr. Trump. If those same polls underestimate Mr. Trump by the same margin, <em class=\"css-2fg4z9 e1gzwzxm0\">he<\/em> would win all the battleground states, for a total of 312 electoral votes. (These calculations assume Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump each win the other states they are favored in.)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><div data-type=\"_mgwidget\" data-widget-id=\"1660802\">\r\n<\/div>\r\n<script>(function(w,q){w[q]=w[q]||[];w[q].push([\"_mgc.load\"])})(window,\"_mgq\");\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/11\/04\/us\/elections\/harris-trump-polls-states.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>These two things are true about the presidential race: The polls currently show Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump effectively tied. And close polls do not &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=122508\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8629],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-122508","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-u-s","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/122508","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=122508"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/122508\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=122508"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=122508"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=122508"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}