{"id":122653,"date":"2024-11-06T09:05:18","date_gmt":"2024-11-06T02:05:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=122653"},"modified":"2024-11-06T09:05:18","modified_gmt":"2024-11-06T02:05:18","slug":"polymarket-election-betting-see-trump-surge-past-harris","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=122653","title":{"rendered":"Polymarket, Election Betting See Trump Surge Past Harris"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<h2 class=\"topline-heading\">Topline<\/h2>\n<p>Former President Donald Trump has been surging on betting sites as more states close their polls, turning around a shrinking lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in betting odds after the first major polls closed, while survey-based prediction models indicated the candidates were locked in a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/saradorn\/2024\/11\/05\/election-2024-live-updates-harris-trump-make-final-battleground-stops-as-polls-show-a-tied-race-live-updates\/\" target=\"_self\" class=\"color-link\" title=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/saradorn\/2024\/11\/05\/election-2024-live-updates-harris-trump-make-final-battleground-stops-as-polls-show-a-tied-race-live-updates\/\" data-ga-track=\"InternalLink:https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/saradorn\/2024\/11\/05\/election-2024-live-updates-harris-trump-make-final-battleground-stops-as-polls-show-a-tied-race-live-updates\/\" aria-label=\"dead heat\" rel=\"noopener\">dead heat<\/a> heading into Election Day.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"embed-base image-embed embed-1\" role=\"presentation\"><figcaption><fbs-accordion><\/p>\n<p class=\"color-body light-text\">Voters cast their ballots in Denver on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. <\/p>\n<p><\/fbs-accordion><small>Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Key Facts<\/h2>\n<div class=\"key-facts\">\n<div class=\"key-facts-element\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1730773650838\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"color-link\" title=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1730773650838\" data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1730773650838\" aria-label=\"Polymarket\">Polymarket<\/a>: Perhaps the most famous election betting player, the blockchain-based site still leaned toward Trump after the first closures, giving him 72% implied odds of victory compared to Harris\u2019 29% as of about 8:45 p.m. EST.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"key-facts-element\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/pres\/presidential-elections\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"color-link\" title=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/pres\/presidential-elections\" data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/pres\/presidential-elections\" aria-label=\"Kalshi\">Kalshi<\/a>: The New York-based prediction platform favors Trump by a 68% to 32% margin, a major shift from Saturday, when Harris <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/tylerroush\/2024\/11\/02\/harris-retakes-election-odds-lead-with-betting-market-as-trump-remains-favorite\/\" target=\"_self\" class=\"color-link\" title=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/tylerroush\/2024\/11\/02\/harris-retakes-election-odds-lead-with-betting-market-as-trump-remains-favorite\/\" data-ga-track=\"InternalLink:https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/tylerroush\/2024\/11\/02\/harris-retakes-election-odds-lead-with-betting-market-as-trump-remains-favorite\/\" aria-label=\"briefly led\" rel=\"noopener\">briefly led<\/a> on the site; unlike Polymarket, Kalshi legally operates in the U.S., as do rival PredictIt and brokerages Robinhood and Interactive Brokers.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"key-facts-element\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.predictit.org\/markets\/detail\/7456\/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"color-link\" title=\"https:\/\/www.predictit.org\/markets\/detail\/7456\/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election\" data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.predictit.org\/markets\/detail\/7456\/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election\" aria-label=\"PredictIt\">PredictIt<\/a>: The site tilting most strongly toward Harris still favored Trump at just after 8:40 p.m., with PredictIt pricing at 64% to 38% for Trump.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"key-facts-element\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/RobinhoodApp\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"color-link\" title=\"https:\/\/x.com\/RobinhoodApp\" data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/x.com\/RobinhoodApp\" aria-label=\"Robinhood\">Robinhood<\/a>: The retail trading giant is the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/dereksaul\/2024\/10\/28\/robinhood-launches-presidential-election-betting-market-allowing-users-to-wager-on-harris-and-trump\/\" target=\"_self\" class=\"color-link\" title=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/dereksaul\/2024\/10\/28\/robinhood-launches-presidential-election-betting-market-allowing-users-to-wager-on-harris-and-trump\/\" data-ga-track=\"InternalLink:https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/dereksaul\/2024\/10\/28\/robinhood-launches-presidential-election-betting-market-allowing-users-to-wager-on-harris-and-trump\/\" aria-label=\"newest\" rel=\"noopener\">newest<\/a> major entrant into election betting and gives Trump about a 68% win probability compared to 35% for his Democratic opponent.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"key-facts-element\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/markets\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"color-link\" title=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/markets\" data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/markets\" aria-label=\"Interactive Brokers\">Interactive Brokers<\/a>: The digital brokerage run by billionaire <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/johnhyatt\/2024\/10\/18\/this-billionaire-wants-you-to-bet-on-the-2024-election\/\" target=\"_self\" class=\"color-link\" title=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/johnhyatt\/2024\/10\/18\/this-billionaire-wants-you-to-bet-on-the-2024-election\/\" data-ga-track=\"InternalLink:https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/johnhyatt\/2024\/10\/18\/this-billionaire-wants-you-to-bet-on-the-2024-election\/\" aria-label=\"Thomas Peterffy\" rel=\"noopener\">Thomas Peterffy<\/a> offers election betting via its subsidiary ForecastEx, which prices in around 67% odds for Trump and 35% for Harris.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"key-facts-element\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/betting.betfair.com\/betfair-predicts\/us-trackers\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"color-link\" title=\"https:\/\/betting.betfair.com\/betfair-predicts\/us-trackers\/\" data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/betting.betfair.com\/betfair-predicts\/us-trackers\/\" aria-label=\"Betfair\">Betfair<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/smarkets.com\/event\/41938283\/politics\/us\/2024-presidential-election\/2024-presidential-election-winner?lang=en-US\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"color-link\" title=\"https:\/\/smarkets.com\/event\/41938283\/politics\/us\/2024-presidential-election\/2024-presidential-election-winner?lang=en-US\" data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/smarkets.com\/event\/41938283\/politics\/us\/2024-presidential-election\/2024-presidential-election-winner?lang=en-US\" aria-label=\"Smarkets\">Smarkets<\/a>: The London-based sites are not open to Americans, but both assign similar chances of a Trump win, with Betfair favoring the Republican by a 68% to 32% margin and Smarkets by a 70% to 30% tilt.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"key-facts-element\">\n<p>Odds around the time of the first major poll closures at 6 p.m. EST were roughly 60% for Trump and 40% for Harris on high-profile betting platforms.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Big Number<\/h2>\n<p>67.7%. That\u2019s the betting market\u2019s aggregated odds for a Trump victory, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/electionbettingodds.com\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"color-link\" title=\"https:\/\/electionbettingodds.com\/\" data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/electionbettingodds.com\/\" aria-label=\"Election Betting Odds\">Election Betting Odds<\/a> tool, which tracks odds across Betfair, Kalshi, PredictIt, Polymarket and Smarkets.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">What Do Other Indicators Say?<\/h2>\n<p>When more polls closed at 9 p.m. EST, Trump had secured 120 Electoral College votes while Harris had 99, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/projects\/election-results-2024\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"color-link\" title=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/projects\/election-results-2024\/\" data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/apnews.com\/projects\/election-results-2024\/\" aria-label=\"Associated Press\">Associated Press<\/a>. The New York Times <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2024\/11\/05\/us\/elections\/results-president-forecast-needle.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"color-link\" title=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2024\/11\/05\/us\/elections\/results-president-forecast-needle.html\" data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2024\/11\/05\/us\/elections\/results-president-forecast-needle.html\" aria-label=\"live presidential forecast\">live presidential forecast<\/a> slightly leaned toward Trump, but still categorized the race as a tossup with no clear leader. Forbes is providing live updates on election results <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/saradorn\/2024\/11\/05\/election-2024-live-updates-trump-wins-florida-and-8-other-states-harris-wins-5-ap-says\/\" target=\"_self\" class=\"color-link\" title=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/saradorn\/2024\/11\/05\/election-2024-live-updates-trump-wins-florida-and-8-other-states-harris-wins-5-ap-says\/\" data-ga-track=\"InternalLink:https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/saradorn\/2024\/11\/05\/election-2024-live-updates-trump-wins-florida-and-8-other-states-harris-wins-5-ap-says\/\" aria-label=\"here\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Contra<\/h2>\n<p>Polling data <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/saradorn\/2024\/11\/05\/election-2024-live-updates-harris-trump-make-final-battleground-stops-as-polls-show-a-tied-race-live-updates\/\" target=\"_self\" class=\"color-link\" title=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/saradorn\/2024\/11\/05\/election-2024-live-updates-harris-trump-make-final-battleground-stops-as-polls-show-a-tied-race-live-updates\/\" data-ga-track=\"InternalLink:https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/saradorn\/2024\/11\/05\/election-2024-live-updates-harris-trump-make-final-battleground-stops-as-polls-show-a-tied-race-live-updates\/\" aria-label=\"suggest\" rel=\"noopener\">suggest<\/a> almost Harris and Trump stand on nearly equal footing on Election Day. <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/2024-election-forecast\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"color-link\" title=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/2024-election-forecast\/\" data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/2024-election-forecast\/\" aria-label=\"FiveThirtyEight\">FiveThirtyEight<\/a>\u2019s forecasts favor Harris at a 50% to 49% clip, while <a href=\"https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"color-link\" title=\"https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model\" data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model\" aria-label=\"Silver Bulletin\">Silver Bulletin<\/a>, the model run by statistician and Polymarket advisor Nate Silver, leans toward Harris by a miniscule 50.02% to 49.99% margin. The difference between betting market odds and poll-based prediction models has been a major subject of debate in recent weeks, with some <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/dereksaul\/2024\/10\/07\/trumps-election-odds-spike-on-polymarket-as-musk-touts-election-betting-site\/\" target=\"_self\" class=\"color-link\" title=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/dereksaul\/2024\/10\/07\/trumps-election-odds-spike-on-polymarket-as-musk-touts-election-betting-site\/\" data-ga-track=\"InternalLink:https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/dereksaul\/2024\/10\/07\/trumps-election-odds-spike-on-polymarket-as-musk-touts-election-betting-site\/\" aria-label=\"suggesting\" rel=\"noopener\">suggesting<\/a> betting markets are a better predictor as bettors are financially incentivized to wager on the candidate more likely to win and skeptics <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/election-betting-market-seen-plagued-140936397.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"color-link\" title=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/election-betting-market-seen-plagued-140936397.html\" data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/election-betting-market-seen-plagued-140936397.html\" aria-label=\"pointing\">pointing<\/a> to the potentially pro-Trump demographic among bettors as an explanation for the skew.<\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"\/><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">What Do Betting Odds Show For Senate And House Control?<\/h2>\n<p>Currently, Democrats have control of the Senate with 51 seats compared to the Republicans\u2019 49, and Republicans have control of the House. The <a href=\"https:\/\/electionbettingodds.com\/SenateWithMap2024.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"color-link\" title=\"https:\/\/electionbettingodds.com\/SenateWithMap2024.html\" data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/electionbettingodds.com\/SenateWithMap2024.html\" aria-label=\"Election Betting Odds\">Election Betting Odds<\/a> tool, which compiles odds from multiple sites, leans heavily toward Republicans taking control of the Senate from Democrats by a margin of 87% to 13% as of 8:35 p.m. EST. The same <a href=\"https:\/\/electionbettingodds.com\/House-Control-2024.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"color-link\" title=\"https:\/\/electionbettingodds.com\/House-Control-2024.html\" data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/electionbettingodds.com\/House-Control-2024.html\" aria-label=\"site\">site<\/a> favors Republicans to take control of the House by a 52% to 49% margin.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">How Does Election Betting Work?<\/h2>\n<p>Sites offer users contracts whose prices are tied to the real-time, market-implied odds of a certain candidate. Each contract pays out $1 if the bettor opted for the winning candidate and $0 if their wager was incorrect. So at the current odds, a contract for Trump would cost about $0.57 and one for Harris roughly $0.44 on Robinhood, with the same binary $0 or $1 return offered for each contract. Election betting sites which operate legally in the U.S. have comparative limits, with Robinhood allowing 5,000 contracts per user and PredictIt $850 per user on each election market.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">When Do Election Bets Settle?<\/h2>\n<p>It varies by platform. Polymarket\u2019s main market will pay out when the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC News desks all call the election in one candidate\u2019s favor (so potentially as soon as this week), Robinhood will pay winning bettors Jan. 7, the day after Congress certifies results, Kalshi on the day of the Jan. 20 inauguration and PredictIt says it will pay out when \u201cany ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><div data-type=\"_mgwidget\" data-widget-id=\"1660802\">\r\n<\/div>\r\n<script>(function(w,q){w[q]=w[q]||[];w[q].push([\"_mgc.load\"])})(window,\"_mgq\");\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/dereksaul\/2024\/11\/05\/election-betting-odds-trump-surpasses-70-on-polymarket-as-more-election-results-come-in\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Topline Former President Donald Trump has been surging on betting sites as more states close their polls, turning around a shrinking lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in betting odds &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=122653\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-122653","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-business","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/122653","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=122653"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/122653\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=122653"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=122653"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=122653"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}