{"id":123004,"date":"2024-11-07T07:26:50","date_gmt":"2024-11-07T00:26:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=123004"},"modified":"2024-11-07T07:26:50","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T00:26:50","slug":"what-donald-trumps-presidency-will-mean-for-the-housing-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=123004","title":{"rendered":"What Donald Trump&#8217;s presidency will mean for the housing market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<aside class=\"single__inline-module alignleft wp-block-nypost-editor-partner-article-links\">\n<\/aside>\n<p>After a hotly contested race with big implications for the housing market,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2024\/11\/06\/us-news\/2024-presidential-election-live-updates-11-6-2024\/\">Donald Trump\u00a0will return to the White House<\/a> for a second term, four years after losing his first bid for reelection.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2024\/11\/06\/us-news\/donald-trump-wins-2024-presidential-election-defying-the-odds-again\/\">Trump will be the 47th president,<\/a> after securing enough Electoral College votes\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/tag\/election-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">from the key swing states<\/a>\u00a0to put him over the threshold for victory. Republicans have also regained majority control of the Senate.<\/p>\n<p>Control of the House could take several days to determine, with a number of tight races still being counted. A Republican sweep of the House and Senate would give Trump significant freedom to pursue his agenda, including what plans he has sketched out to make housing more affordable.<\/p>\n<p>In the early hours of Wednesday morning, Trump\u2014flanked by his family\u2014declared to supporters in West Palm Beach, FL, that it was \u201ca political victory that our country has never seen before\u201d and vowed to \u201cfight for you and your future.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re going to make you very happy, we\u2019re going to make you very proud of your vote. America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>Trump added that he will \u201cnot rest until we have delivered a strong, safe, and prosperous America that you deserve and that your children deserve.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>President-elect Donald Trump on stage at a campaign watch party in West Palm Beach on Nov. 6, 2024. <span class=\"credit\">Photo by JIM WATSON\/AFP via Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The election unfolded against the backdrop of a housing crisis, with half of renters nationwide designated as cost-burdened, and record-high home prices pushing homeownership out of reach for many.<\/p>\n<p>On the campaign trail, Trump had blamed rising home prices on a surge of illegal immigration during the Biden administration. He also claimed that he would somehow lower mortgage rates if elected, although presidents do not control mortgage rates.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s a look at some of Trump\u2019s signature policy proposals, and what impact they might have on the housing market.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"mass-deportation-of-immigrants\">Mass deportation of immigrants<\/h2>\n<p>Trump and his running mate,\u00a0JD Vance, have repeatedly\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/news\/real-estate-news\/vp-debate-vance-walz-housing-immigration\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">claimed that illegal immigration is responsible<\/a>\u00a0for America\u2019s housing affordability crisis, by putting immigrants in competition with citizens for scarce housing units.<\/p>\n<p>Trump has promised to carry out \u201cthe largest deportation operation in American history\u201d and argues that this will ease housing prices by reducing demand.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"single__inline-module alignright\">\n\t<\/aside>\n<p>In reality, the evidence that immigration is a major factor in housing costs is mixed. While there is\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S1051137717300025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">reason to believe<\/a>\u00a0that higher immigration levels can drive up local rents in a city, the recent post-pandemic surge in home prices\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jchs.harvard.edu\/blog\/role-recent-immigrant-surge-housing-costs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">began before illegal immigration levels jumped<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/realtor.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Realtor.com\u00ae<\/a>\u00a0senior economist\u00a0Ralph McLaughlin\u00a0says that the kind of massive immigration crackdown that Trump proposes would have \u201clarge and negative consequences on the US housing market in both the short and long run.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn the short run, reducing immigration could severely hurt the labor supply needed for new homebuilding since up to a third of residential construction employment consists of foreign-born workers,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<p>McLaughlin adds that, in the long term, extreme immigration restrictions could have \u201cspill-over effects to the broader economy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>LendingTree senior economist\u00a0Jacob Channel\u00a0agrees, writing that mass deportations would not solve the fundamental issues with the housing market.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhile fewer immigrants could free up some housing for those who remain in the US, the economic fallout from mass deportations would be catastrophic for the nation\u2019s broader economy,\u201d says Channel.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>Trump has claimed that tackling illegal immigration will help make housing more affordable. <span class=\"credit\">Christopher Sadowski<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"cut-regulations-and-open-up-federal-land-for-building\">Cut regulations and open up federal land for building<\/h2>\n<p>Trump has called for slashing regulations and permit requirements that homebuilders say add unnecessary costs to new homes.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe will eliminate regulations that drive up housing costs with the goal of cutting the cost of a new home in half. We think we can do that. The regulations alone cost 30%. Regulation costs 30% of a new home,\u201d Trump claimed in a September speech at the Economic Club of New York.<\/p>\n<p>However, those figures appear to be dramatically overblown. The National Association of Home Builders, a longstanding industry critic of regulations,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nahb.org\/-\/media\/27E8E24FA6CB432CA4EF3D9C0249771D.ashx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">estimates<\/a>\u00a0that site work and related permit fees account for 7.4% of the average new-home cost, with overhead and general expenses accounting for an additional 5.1%.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"single__inline-module alignleft\">\n\t<\/aside>\n<p>Many economists agree that streamlining and eliminating regulations would help boost home construction and reduce costs, though it\u2019s difficult to imagine achieving the extent of price relief that Trump envisions.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFewer regulations and more available space on which to build may reduce homebuilding costs and help increase the housing supply,\u201d says Channel. \u201cThat said, limiting regulations won\u2019t be enough to cut prices in half, and ending some isn\u2019t a cure-all for the problems plaguing the nation\u2019s housing market.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In a statement, NAHB Chairman\u00a0Carl Harris\u00a0congratulated Trump on his election win.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThroughout the campaign, voters consistently pointed to the lack of housing availability and affordability as a key issue in their voting decisions. Now is the time to take action to address the nation\u2019s housing shortage and let builders build,\u201d he said<\/p>\n<p>Trump has also said he would open up portions of federal land for large-scale housing construction.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThese zones will be ultralow tax and ultralow regulation. One of the great, really small-business job creation programs it will be of all time. We\u2019re going to open up our country to building homes inexpensively so young people and other people can buy homes,\u201d Trump said at the September event.<\/p>\n<p>This is one point that Trump and his opponent agreed on, with Harris also calling for some federal land to be used for housing, and the Biden administration selling some public land near Las Vegas for that purpose.<\/p>\n<div class=\"single__inline-module inline-module inline-module--newsletter aligncenter aligncenter wp-block-nypost-editor-newsletter\">\n<div class=\"inline-module__inner\">\n<div class=\"inline-module__title-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"inline-module__unsubmitted-title-wrapper\">\n<h3 class=\"inline-module__title headline headline--combo-sm-md\">\n\t\t\t\t\tStart your day with the latest business news right at your fingertips\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n<p class=\"inline-module__cta\">\n\t\t\t\t\tSubscribe to our daily Business Report newsletter!\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><h3 class=\"inline-module__title headline headline--combo-sm-md\">\n\t\t\t\t\tThanks for signing up!\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Economists also generally support the idea as one way to boost new home construction. However, one limitation of the plan is that in many cases, there is no significant federal land located near the places where people want to work and live.<\/p>\n<p>Nationwide, the federal government owns about 27% of the total land area, but much of that land is located in the Western US In other regions of the country, there may be little federal land to set aside for housing construction.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"pressure-fed-to-lower-interest-rates\">Pressure Fed to lower interest rates<\/h2>\n<p>Finally, Trump has also claimed that he would somehow lower mortgage rates, although there is no clear mechanism for the president to do so.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cReducing mortgage rates is a big factor. We\u2019re going to get them back down to, we think, 3%, maybe even lower than that, saving the average homebuyer thousands of dollars per year,\u201d Trump said in New York.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"single__inline-module alignright\">\n\t<\/aside>\n<p>Mortgage rates have risen for the past four consecutive weeks, hitting 6.72% last week.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe president doesn\u2019t set mortgage rates. If elected, Trump probably wouldn\u2019t be able to arbitrarily decide to lower them even if he wanted to,\u201d says Channel.<\/p>\n<p>Trump has previously shared his belief that the Federal Reserve should take orders from the president, instead of independently setting monetary policy as it currently does.<\/p>\n<p>But even the Fed does not directly control mortgage rates, which follow the underlying bond market and move in response to investor expectations about the economy, inflation, and future fiscal and monetary policy.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed began cutting its benchmark rate in September, but mortgage rates have climbed steadily since then, due mostly to investor fears that a Republican sweep of the White House and Congress could increase deficit spending.<\/p>\n<p>Yields on the 10-year Treasury jumped to 4.44% on Wednesday morning, up from 4.3% a day earlier, suggesting\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/news\/real-estate-news\/mortgage-rates-donald-trump-election\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">mortgage rates will continue to rise in the short term<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cInvestors are taking Trump at his word and believe if he wins, it will lead to higher tariffs, immigrant deportations, and deficit-financed tax cuts in a full employment economy, all of which means higher inflation and more government borrowing,\u201d\u00a0Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody\u2019s Analytics, said on X last week.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>Trump claimed that he would get mortgage rates to lower if elected. <span class=\"credit\">Damon Higgins \/ USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u201cThe recent surge in mortgage rates is a clear indication what investors believe a Trump victory would mean for the economy and the nation\u2019s fiscal outlook,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"trump-unlikely-to-solve-the-housing-crisis-experts-say\">Trump unlikely to solve the housing crisis, experts say<\/h2>\n<p>Most economists agree that a dire shortage of homes is the root cause of the nation\u2019s housing affordability crisis.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHousing supply, or lack thereof, has plagued the U.S. housing market for at least a decade, with our estimate of a range of 2.5 million to 7.2 million unit gap from 2012 to 2023, depending on the assumptions of the analysis,\u201d says McLaughlin. \u201cDue to a combination of both geographic and legal constraints on development, we simply haven\u2019t built enough housing when, and where, we needed it most.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Although Trump\u2019s proposals to cut red tape and regulations for homebuilders could help boost construction on the margins, housing economists warn other of his proposals could hamper supply.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSimply put, what little Trump and his campaign have stated about his housing policies doesn\u2019t stand up to scrutiny,\u201d\u00a0wrote\u00a0Channel. \u201cNot only are his proposals incredibly vague, but enacting them would likely be difficult. What\u2019s more, many of his proposals, such as mass deportations and implementing large tariffs, are likely to cause more problems than they solve.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As well, the housing crisis in America is more than a decade in the making. Construction plunged following the Great Recession and hasn\u2019t yet fully recovered, leaving the nation in a deep hole of undersupply. Quick and easy fixes are unlikely to emerge.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBoth the Republicans and the Democrats will have proposals that will sound good on paper, but do very little to change the housing shortage, unfortunately,\u201d says\u00a0Ken Johnson, a professor of finance and the Walker Chair of Real Estate at the University of Mississippi.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAs a real estate economist, I\u2019m just here to tell you that both parties have not done a good job with the housing market over the last decade or so.\u201d<a href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/myaccount\/signin?config=NEWS_AND_INSIGHTS_SIGNUP&amp;redirect_url_override=\/myaccount\/profile\/settings\/&amp;isSignup=true\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><div data-type=\"_mgwidget\" data-widget-id=\"1660802\">\r\n<\/div>\r\n<script>(function(w,q){w[q]=w[q]||[];w[q].push([\"_mgc.load\"])})(window,\"_mgq\");\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2024\/11\/06\/real-estate\/what-donald-trumps-return-to-the-white-house-will-mean-for-the-housing-market\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After a hotly contested race with big implications for the housing market,\u00a0Donald Trump\u00a0will return to the White House for a second term, four years after losing his first bid for &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=123004\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-123004","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-business","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/123004","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=123004"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/123004\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=123004"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=123004"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=123004"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}