{"id":123192,"date":"2024-11-07T19:44:43","date_gmt":"2024-11-07T12:44:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=123192"},"modified":"2024-11-07T19:44:43","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T12:44:43","slug":"us-pollsters-taking-heat-again-for-failing-to-predict-trump-triumph-us-elections-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=123192","title":{"rendered":"US pollsters taking heat \u2013 again \u2013 for failing to predict Trump triumph | US elections 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">US pollsters are under fire for the third presidential election running for failing to foresee <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/donaldtrump\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">Donald Trump\u2019s<\/a> emphatic ballot box triumph that will propel him <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/commentisfree\/2024\/nov\/06\/trump-win-election-panel\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">back to the White House<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Having seriously underestimated Trump\u2019s support in the 2016 and 2020 elections, polling agencies trumpeted a recalibrated methodology for 2024 that was meant to more realistically reflect his standing while restoring their own credibility.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Instead, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/commentisfree\/2024\/nov\/05\/elections-polling-data-trump-harris\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">pollsters<\/a> are now being called on to explain a broad range of surveys that showed the two candidates <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2024\/nov\/02\/what-polls-mean-so-far-trump-harris-election-voters\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">essentially deadlocked<\/a> both nationally and in battleground states in a race that was deemed too close to call.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Compounding the embarrassment, many polling experts in the final days before election day predicted a narrow electoral college victory for Kamala Harris, who was foreseen by some as just about eking a win in a majority of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2024\/nov\/06\/donald-trump-battleground-state-wins\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">seven swing states<\/a>: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"f11a3698-b71d-4952-9fa8-7408ff18ee85\" data-spacefinder-role=\"richLink\" data-spacefinder-type=\"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement\" class=\" dcr-1your1i\"><gu-island name=\"RichLinkComponent\" priority=\"feature\" deferuntil=\"idle\" props=\"{&quot;richLinkIndex&quot;:4,&quot;element&quot;:{&quot;_type&quot;:&quot;model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement&quot;,&quot;prefix&quot;:&quot;Related: &quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg and other business leaders congratulate Trump&quot;,&quot;elementId&quot;:&quot;f11a3698-b71d-4952-9fa8-7408ff18ee85&quot;,&quot;role&quot;:&quot;richLink&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2024\/nov\/06\/trump-election-win-billionaires&quot;},&quot;ajaxUrl&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/api.nextgen.guardianapps.co.uk&quot;,&quot;format&quot;:{&quot;design&quot;:0,&quot;display&quot;:0,&quot;theme&quot;:0}}\"\/><\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">In fact, Trump has won five of the states at the time of publication and was leading in Nevada and Arizona, which had yet to be called.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Standing out was a poll published at the weekend by the Des Moines Register that purported to show Harris with a three-point lead over Trump in the Republican stronghold state of Iowa \u2013 supposedly fueled by widespread outrage among women voters over the restriction of abortion rights.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"2397e0be-babe-4214-a7e1-ac62d8b256a5\" data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" data-spacefinder-type=\"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.YoutubeBlockElement\" class=\" dcr-173mewl\"><gu-island name=\"YoutubeBlockComponent\" priority=\"critical\" deferuntil=\"visible\" props=\"{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;de46d62d-097b-4677-b805-a00210aab779&quot;,&quot;assetId&quot;:&quot;8SRcKKNQhoE&quot;,&quot;index&quot;:7,&quot;format&quot;:{&quot;design&quot;:0,&quot;display&quot;:0,&quot;theme&quot;:0},&quot;isMainMedia&quot;:false,&quot;expired&quot;:false,&quot;posterImage&quot;:[{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/media.guim.co.uk\/be58e8b233b88936d27479e6c9df9f267df7ecb2\/0_0_1920_1080\/1000.jpg&quot;,&quot;width&quot;:1000},{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/media.guim.co.uk\/be58e8b233b88936d27479e6c9df9f267df7ecb2\/0_0_1920_1080\/500.jpg&quot;,&quot;width&quot;:500},{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/media.guim.co.uk\/be58e8b233b88936d27479e6c9df9f267df7ecb2\/0_0_1920_1080\/140.jpg&quot;,&quot;width&quot;:140},{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/media.guim.co.uk\/be58e8b233b88936d27479e6c9df9f267df7ecb2\/0_0_1920_1080\/1920.jpg&quot;,&quot;width&quot;:1920}],&quot;duration&quot;:153,&quot;mediaTitle&quot;:&quot;How the night of Trump's presidential comeback unfolded \u2013 video timeline&quot;,&quot;origin&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.theguardian.com&quot;,&quot;stickyVideos&quot;:false,&quot;enableAds&quot;:true}\"><\/p>\n<div data-chromatic=\"ignore\">\n<div data-component=\"youtube-atom\" data-atom-id=\"de46d62d-097b-4677-b805-a00210aab779\" data-video-id=\"8SRcKKNQhoE\" data-video-unique-id=\"8SRcKKNQhoE-7\">\n<div data-testid=\"youtube-sticky-8SRcKKNQhoE-7\" data-is-sticky=\"false\" class=\"dcr-0\">\n<div class=\"dcr-0\">\n<div class=\"dcr-12kdaod\">\n<div data-format-theme=\"0\" data-format-design=\"0\" data-format-display=\"0\" class=\"dcr-1slp52v\"><button data-testid=\"youtube-overlay-8SRcKKNQhoE-7\" aria-label=\"Play video: How the night of Trump's presidential comeback unfolded \u2013 video timeline\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-rvfwnd\"><picture itemprop=\"contentUrl\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/be58e8b233b88936d27479e6c9df9f267df7ecb2\/0_0_1920_1080\/1920.jpg?width=620&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=none&amp;crop=none\" media=\"(min-width: 980px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.25), (min-width: 980px) and (min-resolution: 120dpi)\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/be58e8b233b88936d27479e6c9df9f267df7ecb2\/0_0_1920_1080\/1920.jpg?width=620&amp;dpr=1&amp;s=none&amp;crop=none\" media=\"(min-width: 980px)\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/be58e8b233b88936d27479e6c9df9f267df7ecb2\/0_0_1920_1080\/1920.jpg?width=700&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=none&amp;crop=none\" media=\"(min-width: 740px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.25), (min-width: 740px) and (min-resolution: 120dpi)\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/be58e8b233b88936d27479e6c9df9f267df7ecb2\/0_0_1920_1080\/1920.jpg?width=700&amp;dpr=1&amp;s=none&amp;crop=none\" media=\"(min-width: 740px)\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/be58e8b233b88936d27479e6c9df9f267df7ecb2\/0_0_1920_1080\/1920.jpg?width=620&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=none&amp;crop=none\" media=\"(min-width: 660px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.25), (min-width: 660px) and (min-resolution: 120dpi)\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/be58e8b233b88936d27479e6c9df9f267df7ecb2\/0_0_1920_1080\/1920.jpg?width=620&amp;dpr=1&amp;s=none&amp;crop=none\" media=\"(min-width: 660px)\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/be58e8b233b88936d27479e6c9df9f267df7ecb2\/0_0_1920_1080\/1920.jpg?width=645&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=none&amp;crop=none\" media=\"(min-width: 480px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.25), (min-width: 480px) and (min-resolution: 120dpi)\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/be58e8b233b88936d27479e6c9df9f267df7ecb2\/0_0_1920_1080\/1920.jpg?width=645&amp;dpr=1&amp;s=none&amp;crop=none\" media=\"(min-width: 480px)\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/be58e8b233b88936d27479e6c9df9f267df7ecb2\/0_0_1920_1080\/1920.jpg?width=465&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=none&amp;crop=none\" media=\"(min-width: 320px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.25), (min-width: 320px) and (min-resolution: 120dpi)\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/be58e8b233b88936d27479e6c9df9f267df7ecb2\/0_0_1920_1080\/1920.jpg?width=465&amp;dpr=1&amp;s=none&amp;crop=none\" media=\"(min-width: 320px)\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"How the night of Trump's presidential comeback unfolded \u2013 video timeline\" src=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/be58e8b233b88936d27479e6c9df9f267df7ecb2\/0_0_1920_1080\/1920.jpg?width=465&amp;dpr=1&amp;s=none&amp;crop=none\" height=\"259\" width=\"460\" class=\"dcr-my5zgw\"\/><\/picture><\/button><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" class=\"dcr-1fujct4\"><span class=\"dcr-1alawo7\"><svg width=\"36\" height=\"23\" viewbox=\"0 0 36 23\"><path d=\"M3.2 0l-3.2 3.3v16.4l3.3 3.3h18.7v-23h-18.8m30.4 1l-8.6 8v5l8.6 8h2.4v-21h-2.4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"dcr-1qvd3m6\">How the night of Trump&#8217;s presidential comeback unfolded \u2013 video timeline<\/span><\/figcaption><\/div>\n<p><\/gu-island><\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">The poll, carried out by J Ann Selzer \u2013 an Iowa pollster widely renowned among her peers for reliability \u2013 fed Democratic hopes of a groundswell of support among female voters that could potentially carry over to neighboring Michigan and Wisconsin.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Selzer vouched for its findings even while Trump\u2019s campaign dismissed it as a \u201cfake poll\u201d and \u201ca clear outlier\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">\u201cI\u2019ve been the outlier queen so many times,\u201d Selzer, whose polling correctly foretold Barack Obama\u2019s triumph in the Iowa caucuses in 2008, told the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/11\/04\/us\/elections\/iowa-selzer-poll-trump-harris.html\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">New York Times<\/a>. \u201cI\u2019m not jumpy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Actual events proved the poll to be a dud. Iowa was called for Trump early, and with nearly all the votes counted on Wednesday, he led by an emphatic 55.9% to 42.7%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2020\/aug\/15\/rick-perlstein-reaganland-donald-trump-nixon-republicans\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">Rick Perlstein<\/a>, an award-winning historian who has written several books chronicling the rise of American conservatism, lamented the role of polling in modern elections in a series of posts on X.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">\u201cIowa called for Trump. Polling is a very compromised enterprise. It would be great to see people start ignoring it,\u201d he <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/rickperlstein\/status\/1854001094621385185\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">wrote<\/a> on Tuesday evening.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">In a later <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/rickperlstein\/status\/1854024940124516593\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">post<\/a>, he wrote: \u201cOne of the trippy things about the polling enterprise is [the] fraught relationship they have with traditional journalism, complaining of their breathless coverage that does not understand polling methodology, but also soliciting that coverage for business purposes.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">The criticism was joined by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/article\/2024\/sep\/05\/harris-election-allan-lichtman\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">Allan Lichtman<\/a>, a historian at American University who forecast a Harris victory based on a system of 13 \u201ckeys\u201d he had used to correctly predict the outcome of 11 of the past 12 presidential elections.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">\u201cUnlike Nate Silver, who will try to squirm out of why he didn\u2019t see the election coming, I admit that I was wrong,\u201d Lichtman <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/AllanLichtman\/status\/1854202104577212563\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">wrote<\/a>, adding that he would assess his method and the election in a live broadcast on Thursday.<\/p>\n<figure data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" data-spacefinder-type=\"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.NewsletterSignupBlockElement\" class=\" dcr-173mewl\"><a data-ignore=\"global-link-styling\" href=\"#EmailSignup-skip-link-17\" class=\"dcr-jzxpee\">skip past newsletter promotion<\/a><\/p>\n<aside aria-label=\"newsletter promotion\" class=\"dcr-av5vqf\">\n<div class=\"dcr-10et71f\">\n<p class=\"dcr-rsfwa\">Sign up to <span>The Stakes \u2014 Presidential Transition<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"dcr-1xjndtj\">We will guide you through the aftermath of the US election and the transition to a Trump presidency<\/p>\n<p><gu-island name=\"SecureSignup\" priority=\"feature\" deferuntil=\"visible\" props=\"{&quot;newsletterId&quot;:&quot;the-stakes-us-election-edition&quot;,&quot;successDescription&quot;:&quot;We will guide you through the aftermath of the US election and the transition to a Trump presidency&quot;}\"\/><span class=\"dcr-1eusqlu\"><strong>Privacy Notice: <\/strong>Newsletters may contain info about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. For more information see our <a data-ignore=\"global-link-styling\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/help\/privacy-policy\" rel=\"noreferrer\" class=\"dcr-1rjy2q9\">Privacy Policy<\/a>. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google <a data-ignore=\"global-link-styling\" href=\"https:\/\/policies.google.com\/privacy\" rel=\"noreferrer\" class=\"dcr-1rjy2q9\">Privacy Policy<\/a> and <a data-ignore=\"global-link-styling\" href=\"https:\/\/policies.google.com\/terms\" rel=\"noreferrer\" class=\"dcr-1rjy2q9\">Terms of Service<\/a> apply.<\/span><\/aside>\n<p id=\"EmailSignup-skip-link-17\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-label=\"after newsletter promotion\" role=\"note\" class=\"dcr-jzxpee\">after newsletter promotion<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/donald-trump-kamala-harris-polls-swing-states-nate-silver-prediction-favorite-change-1980250\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">Silver<\/a>, a pollster who founded FiveThirtyEight, made Harris a marginal favourite hours before polls opened, but had <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/23\/opinion\/election-polls-results-trump-harris.html\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">written<\/a> two weeks earlier that his \u201cgut\u201d favored Trump.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">The pollsters\u2019 discomfiture was also highlighted by online betting companies, who claimed they had more accurately predicted the result than self-proclaimed professionals with decades of experience in the field.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"377057a3-c4d8-403f-b660-c5c0f2453470\" data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" data-spacefinder-type=\"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.YoutubeBlockElement\" class=\" dcr-173mewl\"><gu-island name=\"YoutubeBlockComponent\" priority=\"critical\" deferuntil=\"visible\" props=\"{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;2b030902-1884-4b34-ba75-6a7fc530061b&quot;,&quot;assetId&quot;:&quot;pJms-bcw2Ok&quot;,&quot;index&quot;:20,&quot;format&quot;:{&quot;design&quot;:0,&quot;display&quot;:0,&quot;theme&quot;:0},&quot;isMainMedia&quot;:false,&quot;expired&quot;:false,&quot;posterImage&quot;:[{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/media.guim.co.uk\/28d8744efad67a3643a2bcc5417274b18ab2da76\/0_0_1920_1080\/1000.jpg&quot;,&quot;width&quot;:1000},{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/media.guim.co.uk\/28d8744efad67a3643a2bcc5417274b18ab2da76\/0_0_1920_1080\/500.jpg&quot;,&quot;width&quot;:500},{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/media.guim.co.uk\/28d8744efad67a3643a2bcc5417274b18ab2da76\/0_0_1920_1080\/140.jpg&quot;,&quot;width&quot;:140},{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/media.guim.co.uk\/28d8744efad67a3643a2bcc5417274b18ab2da76\/0_0_1920_1080\/1920.jpg&quot;,&quot;width&quot;:1920}],&quot;duration&quot;:92,&quot;mediaTitle&quot;:&quot;Historic firsts from the 2024 US election \u2013 video report&quot;,&quot;origin&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.theguardian.com&quot;,&quot;stickyVideos&quot;:false,&quot;enableAds&quot;:true}\"><\/p>\n<div data-chromatic=\"ignore\">\n<div data-component=\"youtube-atom\" data-atom-id=\"2b030902-1884-4b34-ba75-6a7fc530061b\" data-video-id=\"pJms-bcw2Ok\" data-video-unique-id=\"pJms-bcw2Ok-20\">\n<div data-testid=\"youtube-sticky-pJms-bcw2Ok-20\" data-is-sticky=\"false\" class=\"dcr-0\">\n<div class=\"dcr-0\">\n<div class=\"dcr-12kdaod\">\n<div data-format-theme=\"0\" data-format-design=\"0\" data-format-display=\"0\" class=\"dcr-1slp52v\"><button data-testid=\"youtube-overlay-pJms-bcw2Ok-20\" aria-label=\"Play video: Historic firsts from the 2024 US election \u2013 video report\" type=\"button\" class=\"dcr-rvfwnd\"><picture itemprop=\"contentUrl\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/28d8744efad67a3643a2bcc5417274b18ab2da76\/0_0_1920_1080\/1920.jpg?width=620&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=none&amp;crop=none\" media=\"(min-width: 980px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.25), (min-width: 980px) and (min-resolution: 120dpi)\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/28d8744efad67a3643a2bcc5417274b18ab2da76\/0_0_1920_1080\/1920.jpg?width=620&amp;dpr=1&amp;s=none&amp;crop=none\" media=\"(min-width: 980px)\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/28d8744efad67a3643a2bcc5417274b18ab2da76\/0_0_1920_1080\/1920.jpg?width=700&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=none&amp;crop=none\" media=\"(min-width: 740px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.25), (min-width: 740px) and (min-resolution: 120dpi)\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/28d8744efad67a3643a2bcc5417274b18ab2da76\/0_0_1920_1080\/1920.jpg?width=700&amp;dpr=1&amp;s=none&amp;crop=none\" media=\"(min-width: 740px)\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/28d8744efad67a3643a2bcc5417274b18ab2da76\/0_0_1920_1080\/1920.jpg?width=620&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=none&amp;crop=none\" media=\"(min-width: 660px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.25), (min-width: 660px) and (min-resolution: 120dpi)\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/28d8744efad67a3643a2bcc5417274b18ab2da76\/0_0_1920_1080\/1920.jpg?width=620&amp;dpr=1&amp;s=none&amp;crop=none\" media=\"(min-width: 660px)\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/28d8744efad67a3643a2bcc5417274b18ab2da76\/0_0_1920_1080\/1920.jpg?width=645&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=none&amp;crop=none\" media=\"(min-width: 480px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.25), (min-width: 480px) and (min-resolution: 120dpi)\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/28d8744efad67a3643a2bcc5417274b18ab2da76\/0_0_1920_1080\/1920.jpg?width=645&amp;dpr=1&amp;s=none&amp;crop=none\" media=\"(min-width: 480px)\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/28d8744efad67a3643a2bcc5417274b18ab2da76\/0_0_1920_1080\/1920.jpg?width=465&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=none&amp;crop=none\" media=\"(min-width: 320px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.25), (min-width: 320px) and (min-resolution: 120dpi)\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/28d8744efad67a3643a2bcc5417274b18ab2da76\/0_0_1920_1080\/1920.jpg?width=465&amp;dpr=1&amp;s=none&amp;crop=none\" media=\"(min-width: 320px)\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Historic firsts from the 2024 US election \u2013 video report\" src=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/28d8744efad67a3643a2bcc5417274b18ab2da76\/0_0_1920_1080\/1920.jpg?width=465&amp;dpr=1&amp;s=none&amp;crop=none\" height=\"259\" width=\"460\" class=\"dcr-my5zgw\"\/><\/picture><\/button><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" class=\"dcr-1fujct4\"><span class=\"dcr-1alawo7\"><svg width=\"36\" height=\"23\" viewbox=\"0 0 36 23\"><path d=\"M3.2 0l-3.2 3.3v16.4l3.3 3.3h18.7v-23h-18.8m30.4 1l-8.6 8v5l8.6 8h2.4v-21h-2.4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"dcr-1qvd3m6\">Historic firsts from the 2024 US election \u2013 video report<\/span><\/figcaption><\/div>\n<p><\/gu-island><\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Five companies \u2013 Betfair, Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt and Smarkets \u2013 gave Trump a better-than-even chance of winning on the eve of polling day, the New York Times reported. As polls closed on Tuesday, their odds in favour of his winning shot up.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Polymarket boasted that it had \u201cproved the wisdom of markets over the polls, the media, and the pundits\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">\u201cPolymarket consistently and accurately forecasted outcomes well ahead of all three, demonstrating the power of high volume, deeply liquid prediction markets,\u201d the company posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Polymarket\/status\/1854203069841469485\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">X<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Tarek Mansour, the chief executive of Kalshi, put it more succinctly. \u201cPolls 0, Prediction Markets 1,\u201d he <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Polymarket\/status\/1854203069841469485021\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">wrote<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\"><strong>Read more of the Guardian\u2019s 2024 US election coverage<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><div data-type=\"_mgwidget\" data-widget-id=\"1660802\">\r\n<\/div>\r\n<script>(function(w,q){w[q]=w[q]||[];w[q].push([\"_mgc.load\"])})(window,\"_mgq\");\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2024\/nov\/06\/trump-presidential-election-polling\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US pollsters are under fire for the third presidential election running for failing to foresee Donald Trump\u2019s emphatic ballot box triumph that will propel him back to the White House. &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=123192\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8629],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-123192","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-u-s","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/123192","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=123192"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/123192\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=123192"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=123192"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=123192"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}