{"id":124526,"date":"2024-11-11T08:09:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-11T01:09:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=124526"},"modified":"2024-11-11T08:09:00","modified_gmt":"2024-11-11T01:09:00","slug":"bond-market-on-risky-path-as-traders-regroup-from-wild-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=124526","title":{"rendered":"Bond Market on Risky Path as Traders Regroup From Wild Week"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->(Bloomberg) &#8212; The bond-market selloff unleashed by Donald Trump\u2019s presidential victory last week ended almost as quickly as it began.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Most Read from Bloomberg<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Yet firms like BlackRock Inc., JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and TCW Group Inc. have issued a steady drumbeat of warnings that the bumpy ride is likely far from over.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Trump\u2019s coming return to the White House has significantly upended the outlook for the US Treasury market, where October\u2019s losses had already wiped out much of this year\u2019s gains.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Less than two months after the Federal Reserve started pulling interest rates back from a more than two-decade high, the likelihood that Trump will cut taxes and throw up large tariffs is threatening to rekindle inflation by raising import costs and pouring stimulus on an already strong economy.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->His fiscal plans \u2014 unless offset by massive spending cuts \u2014 would also send the federal budget deficit surging. And that, in turn, has renewed doubts about whether bondholders will start demanding higher yields in return for absorbing an ever-rising supply of new Treasuries.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->One scenario is \u201cthe bond market instills fiscal discipline with an unpleasant rise in rates,\u201d said Janet Rilling, senior portfolio manager and the head of the Plus Fixed Income team at Allspring Global Investments.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->She predicted the 10-year Treasury yield could rise back to the peak of 5% hit in late 2023, about 70 basis points above where it was Friday. That \u201cwas the cycle high and it\u2019s a reasonable level if there is a full implementation of the proposed tariffs.\u201d<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->There remains considerable uncertainty about the precise policies Trump will enact, and some of the potential impact has already been priced in, since speculators started betting on his victory well ahead of the vote. While 10- and 30-year Treasury yields surged Wednesday to the highest in months, they came tumbling back down again over the next two days, ending the week lower than they began.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->There\u2019s no cash Treasuries trading on Monday due to a US holiday.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->But the prospect that Trump\u2019s policies will spur growth has driven traders to pare back expectations for how deeply the the Fed will cut rates next year, dashing hopes that bonds would rally as it eased policy aggressively.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Barclays Plc and JPMorgan have shifted their Fed forecasts to show fewer reductions. Swaps traders are pricing in that policymakers will reduce its benchmark rate to 4% by mid-2025, a full percentage point higher than they were predicting in September. It\u2019s in a range of 4.5% to 4.75% now.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p><button class=\"secondary-btn fin-size-large readmore-button rounded   yf-15mk0m\" data-ylk=\"elm:readmore;itc:1;sec:content-canvas;slk:Story%20Continues\" aria-label=\"Story Continues\" title=\"Story Continues\"> <span>Story Continues<\/span> <\/button> <\/p>\n<div class=\"read-more-wrapper\" style=\"display: none\">\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->The coming week\u2019s economic data, particularly the latest reading on consumer and producer prices, may spark renewed volatility. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, New York Fed president John Williams and Fed Governor Christopher Waller are also set to speak, providing potentially fresh insights on their outlooks.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said Sunday the US economy has remained remarkably strong as the central bank progressed in beating back inflation, though the Fed was still \u201cnot all the way home.\u201d<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->What Bloomberg Strategists Say &#8230;<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->\u201cElection trades are set for a bit of a breather as punters looks to recalibrate risk and sweep a bit of profit off the table. This is kind of what we saw in the aftermath of the election in 2016; after a big rally the day after, the S&amp;P moved sideways for a few days before taking off again. The rise in Treasury yields was more consistent and pronounced, but then again the Fed was on the verge of re-starting its rate-hike normalization, not in the midst of an easing cycle.\u201d<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Cameron Crise, macro strategist<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->For the full report, click here<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Rick Rieder, BlackRock\u2019s chief investment officer for global fixed income, has been telling investors they shouldn\u2019t expect bond prices to rise from here. He said the recent backup is a chance to lock in elevated yields on short-term bonds, but he remains cautious about longer-term debt given the current uncertainty.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->After the Fed meeting Thursday, he said in a note to clients that the previous day\u2019s selloff had made short-term yields \u201cextremely attractive.\u201d But \u201cventuring out to the wild blue yonder of longer-term interest rates,\u201d he added, is \u201cmaybe not worth that excitement (or the volatility).\u201d<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Others see risk the bond market has further room to fall. JPMorgan\u2019s Bob Michele, the chief investment officer and head of global fixed income at its asset management arm, is among those warning that 10-year Treasury yields may eventually climb back to 5% after Trump takes office. At Amundi SA, Europe\u2019s biggest asset manager, CIO Vincent Mortier has flagged that point too, saying it\u2019s a \u201creal alert level\u201d that could ripple into the equity market by driving investors to shift cash over to bonds.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->After the Fed cut rates for its second straight meeting on Thursday, Powell declined to speculate on how Trump\u2019s plans may affect the bank\u2019s path and said it wasn\u2019t clear that the recent rise in yields will hold.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->But analysts widely expect the next Trump administration to worsen the federal deficit, which has already swelled under President Joe Biden. The Committee for a Responsible Budget last month estimated Trump\u2019s plans would increase the debt by $7.75 trillion more than what\u2019s currently projected through fiscal year 2035.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->\u201cAt some point, an increasing deficit and debt servicing, all things equal, should lead to a higher yield premium,\u201d said Ruben Hovhannisyan, fixed-income portfolio manager at TCW Group. \u201cThe question is the degree of how much more fiscal deficits will grow under this administration.\u201d<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->What to Watch<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<ul class=\"yf-1woyvo2\">\n<li class=\"yf-1woyvo2\">\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Economic data:<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<ul class=\"yf-1woyvo2\">\n<li class=\"yf-1woyvo2\">\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Nov. 12: NFIB small business optimism; Fed\u2019s senior loan officer survey<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"yf-1woyvo2\">\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Nov. 13: MBA mortgage applications; real average earnings; Consumer Price Index; monthly budget statement<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"yf-1woyvo2\">\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Nov. 14: Producer price index; jobless claims<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"yf-1woyvo2\">\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Nov. 15: Empire manufacturing; retail sales; import and export price index; industrial production; capacity utilization; business inventories<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"yf-1woyvo2\">\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Fed calendar:<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<ul class=\"yf-1woyvo2\">\n<li class=\"yf-1woyvo2\">\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Nov. 12: Fed Governor Christopher Waller; Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin; Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"yf-1woyvo2\">\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Nov. 13: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan; St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem; Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"yf-1woyvo2\">\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Nov. 14: Barkin; Fed chair Powell; New York Fed President John Williams<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"yf-1woyvo2\">\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Auction calendar:<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<ul class=\"yf-1woyvo2\">\n<li class=\"yf-1woyvo2\">\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Nov. 12: 13-, 26-week bills; 42-day CMB<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"yf-1woyvo2\">\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Nov. 13: 17-week bills<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"yf-1woyvo2\">\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Nov. 14: 4-, 8-week bills<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->&#8211;With assistance from Julien Ponthus and Ruth Carson.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->(Updates with comment from Fed\u2019s Kashkari)<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1pe5jgt\"><!-- HTML_TAG_START -->\u00a92024 Bloomberg L.P.<!-- HTML_TAG_END --><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><div data-type=\"_mgwidget\" data-widget-id=\"1660802\">\r\n<\/div>\r\n<script>(function(w,q){w[q]=w[q]||[];w[q].push([\"_mgc.load\"])})(window,\"_mgq\");\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/bond-market-risky-path-traders-150156893.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Bloomberg) &#8212; The bond-market selloff unleashed by Donald Trump\u2019s presidential victory last week ended almost as quickly as it began. Most Read from Bloomberg Yet firms like BlackRock Inc., JPMorgan &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=124526\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-124526","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-business","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/124526","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=124526"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/124526\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=124526"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=124526"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=124526"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}