{"id":127015,"date":"2024-11-17T21:12:09","date_gmt":"2024-11-17T14:12:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=127015"},"modified":"2024-11-17T21:12:09","modified_gmt":"2024-11-17T14:12:09","slug":"top-pollster-ann-selzer-to-retire-after-bombshell-iowa-poll-ended-in-historic-miss","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=127015","title":{"rendered":"Top pollster Ann Selzer to retire after bombshell Iowa poll ended in historic miss"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-editable=\"content\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-reorderable=\"content\">\n<p>\n    <cite class=\"source__cite\"><br \/>\n      <span class=\"source__location\" data-editable=\"location\">New York<\/span><br \/>\n      <span class=\"source__text\" data-editable=\"source\">CNN<\/span><br \/>\n        \u00a0\u2014\u00a0<br \/>\n    <\/cite>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm3l1cfw4000m25ql65jw4ca4@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Top pollster J. Ann Selzer will retire from the Des Moines Register\u2019s famed Iowa Poll and the survey will \u201cevolve\u201d after it failed to accurately capture former President Donald Trump\u2019s strong support in the 2024 election, resulting in a 16-point miss.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm3l1csad00043b5vqj6bumbb@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            The announcement from Selzer comes after the Register in its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.desmoinesregister.com\/story\/news\/politics\/iowa-poll\/2024\/11\/02\/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race\/75354033007\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">final poll before Election Day<\/a> delivered a bombshell result showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 47-44% among likely voters in the state, raising speculation that Harris could mount a stunning upset. While other surveys had found Trump comfortably ahead of Harris in the state, Selzer\u2019s poll raised Democrats\u2019 hopes in the final days of the race and was widely <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2024\/11\/02\/politics\/iowa-poll-harris-trump\/index.html\">reported<\/a> by other outlets.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm3l1csad00053b5vymv1m0wi@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Trump ultimately swept to victory over Harris in the state by a 13-point margin, winning the actual vote 56-43%. Selzer later <a href=\"https:\/\/www.desmoinesregister.com\/story\/opinion\/2024\/11\/07\/ann-selzer-well-look-at-data-to-try-to-understand-iowa-poll-miss\/76100172007\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">acknowledged<\/a> her poll was a \u201cbig miss\u201d and suggested that her poll might have \u201cactually energize[d] and activate[d] Republican voters who thought they would likely coast to victory.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm3l1csad00063b5ve66h5v82@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Kristin Roberts, chief content officer of Gannett Media, which owns the Des Moines Register, told CNN that the Iowa Poll will \u201cevolve as we find new ways to accurately capture public sentiment and the pulse of Iowans on state and national issues.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm3l1csad00073b5ve7g1hsts@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            \u201cOur mission is to provide trusted news and content to our readers and the public,\u201d Roberts said in a statement to CNN. \u201cWe did not deliver on that promise when we shared results of the last Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, which did not accurately capture the outcome of the presidential election.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm3l1csad00083b5v0mokbnju@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Since its founding in 1943, the Iowa Poll has offered insight into how voters in the state intend to cast their ballots. Selzer began working on the poll in 1987 as a staffer for the Register before founding her own firm, Selzer &amp; Co. of West Des Moines, which has conducted the poll on a contract basis since 1997.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm3l1csad00093b5vu62hdppw@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Prior to the 2024 survey, the Iowa Poll under her stewardship had been considered by many to be the methodological gold standard. In the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.desmoinesregister.com\/story\/news\/politics\/iowa-poll\/2024\/11\/02\/how-do-past-iowa-poll-results-compare-to-iowa-election-results\/76018755007\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">six other presidential elections Selzer has overseen<\/a>, the poll has only missed the winner once (finding Democrat John Kerry up 5 points ahead of the 2004 election, when Republican George W. Bush ultimately won the state by less than a point), and its largest previous error on the margin came in 2008, when the final poll before the election found Barack Obama ahead by 17 points, significantly larger than his eventual 10-point win. As of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/pollster-ratings-silver-bulletin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">June 2024<\/a>, election forecaster Nate Silver gave Selzer an A+ rating.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm3l1csad000a3b5vwhzw3jec@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            In an op-ed for the Register, Selzer said that her decision to part ways with the poll predated the erroneous results.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm3l1csad000b3b5vlmg95jfh@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            \u201cOver a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities,\u201d Selzer wrote.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm3l1csad000c3b5virxy6a9f@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Selzer said she would have preferred the announcement follow a \u201cfinal poll aligned with Election Day results,\u201d noting in her column that \u201cit\u2019s ironic that it\u2019s just the opposite\u201d but that she remains \u201cproud of the work I\u2019ve done for the Register.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm3l1csad000d3b5vizilwjel@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            \u201cPolling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist. So, I\u2019m humbled, yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings,\u201d Selzer wrote. \u201cMy integrity means a lot to me. To those who have questioned it, there are likely no words to dissuade.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm3l1csad000e3b5v0gwl32uo@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            In a separate column for the Register published on Sunday, executive editor Carol Hunter wrote that Selzer had discussed a timetable for \u201cwinding down her work on the poll\u201d over the last few years and confirmed that Selzer had given her notice over a year ago, saying that she would \u201cnot renew when her 2024 contract ended with [the] publication of the pre-election poll.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm3l1csad000f3b5vobjw9fr0@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            The Register needs to \u201cfind new ways to accurately take the pulse of Iowans on state and national issues,\u201d Hunter wrote. \u201cOur intention is to reimagine how to best capture public sentiment and opinion among Iowans to provide valuable and accurate insight into legislative issues and politics.\n    <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><div data-type=\"_mgwidget\" data-widget-id=\"1660802\">\r\n<\/div>\r\n<script>(function(w,q){w[q]=w[q]||[];w[q].push([\"_mgc.load\"])})(window,\"_mgq\");\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2024\/11\/17\/media\/iowa-pollster-ann-selzer-retire-trump-harris\/index.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>New York CNN \u00a0\u2014\u00a0 Top pollster J. Ann Selzer will retire from the Des Moines Register\u2019s famed Iowa Poll and the survey will \u201cevolve\u201d after it failed to accurately capture &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=127015\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8629],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-127015","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-u-s","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/127015","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=127015"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/127015\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=127015"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=127015"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=127015"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}