{"id":131866,"date":"2024-11-30T19:19:10","date_gmt":"2024-11-30T12:19:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=131866"},"modified":"2024-11-30T19:19:10","modified_gmt":"2024-11-30T12:19:10","slug":"the-deep-historical-forces-that-explain-trumps-win-us-politics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=131866","title":{"rendered":"The deep historical forces that explain Trump\u2019s win | US politics"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\"><span style=\"color:var(--drop-cap);font-weight:500;\" class=\"dcr-15rw6c2\">I<\/span>n the days since the sweeping Republican victory in the US election, which gave the party control of the presidency, the\u00a0Senate and the House, commentators have analysed\u00a0and dissected the relative merits of the\u00a0main protagonists \u2013 Kamala Harris and\u00a0Donald Trump \u2013 in\u00a0minute detail. Much has been said about their personalities and the words they have\u00a0spoken; little about the impersonal social forces that push\u00a0complex human societies to the\u00a0brink\u00a0of collapse \u2013 and sometimes beyond. That\u2019s a mistake: in order to understand the roots of our current crisis, and possible ways out of it, it\u2019s precisely these tectonic forces we need\u00a0to focus on.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">The research team I lead studies cycles of political integration and disintegration over the past 5,000 years. We have found that societies, organised as states, can experience significant periods of peace and stability lasting, roughly, a century or so. Inevitably, though, they then enter periods of social unrest and political breakdown. Think of the end of the Roman empire, the English civil war or\u00a0the Russian Revolution. To date, we\u00a0have amassed data on hundreds of\u00a0historical states as they slid into crisis, and then emerged from it.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">So we\u2019re in a good position to identify just those impersonal social\u00a0forces that foment unrest and fragmentation, and we\u2019ve found three\u00a0common factors: popular immiseration, elite overproduction and state breakdown.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">To get a better understanding of\u00a0these concepts and how they are influencing American politics in 2024, we need to travel back in time to the 1930s, when an unwritten social contract came into being in the form of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/franklin-d-roosevelt\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">Franklin D Roosevelt<\/a>\u2019s New Deal. This contract balanced the interests of\u00a0workers, businesses and the state in\u00a0a way similar to the more formal agreements we see in Nordic countries. For two generations, this\u00a0implicit pact delivered an unprecedented growth in wellbeing across a broad swath of the country. At\u00a0the same time, a \u201cGreat Compression\u201d of incomes and wealth dramatically reduced economic inequality. For roughly 50 years the interests of workers and the interests of owners were kept in balance, and overall income inequality remained remarkably low.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"d4532279-e5f8-458b-9ed5-806911e5b778\" data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" data-spacefinder-type=\"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.ImageBlockElement\" class=\" dcr-173mewl\"><figcaption data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" class=\"dcr-1fujct4\"><span class=\"dcr-1inf02i\"><svg width=\"18\" height=\"13\" viewbox=\"0 0 18 13\"><path d=\"M18 3.5v8l-1.5 1.5h-15l-1.5-1.5v-8l1.5-1.5h3.5l2-2h4l2 2h3.5l1.5 1.5zm-9 7.5c1.9 0 3.5-1.6 3.5-3.5s-1.6-3.5-3.5-3.5-3.5 1.6-3.5 3.5 1.6 3.5 3.5 3.5z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"dcr-1qvd3m6\">Franklin D Roosevelt signs a bill at the White House in 1933.<\/span> Photograph: AP<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">That social contract began to break down in the late 1970s. The power of unions was undermined, and taxes on\u00a0the wealthy cut back. Typical workers\u2019 wages, which had previously increased in tandem with overall economic growth, started to lag behind. Inflation-adjusted wages stagnated and at times decreased. The result was a decline in many aspects of\u00a0quality of life for the majority of Americans. One shocking way this became evident was in changes to the average life expectancy, which stalled and even went into reverse (and this started well before the Covid pandemic). That\u2019s what we term \u201cpopular immiseration\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">With the incomes of workers effectively stuck, the fruits of economic growth were reaped by the\u00a0elites instead. A perverse \u201cwealth pump\u201d came into being, siphoning money from the poor and channelling it to the rich. The Great Compression reversed itself. In many ways, the last\u00a0four decades call to mind what happened in the United States between 1870 and 1900 \u2013 the time of railroad fortunes and robber barons. If\u00a0the postwar period was a golden age of broad-based prosperity, after 1980 we could be said to have entered a\u00a0Second Gilded Age.<\/p>\n<aside data-spacefinder-role=\"supporting\" class=\"dcr-1eyan6r\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 22 14\" style=\"fill:var(--pullquote-icon);\" class=\"dcr-scql1j\"><path d=\"M5.255 0h4.75c-.572 4.53-1.077 8.972-1.297 13.941H0C.792 9.104 2.44 4.53 5.255 0Zm11.061 0H21c-.506 4.53-1.077 8.972-1.297 13.941h-8.686c.902-4.837 2.485-9.411 5.3-13.941Z\"\/><\/svg><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"dcr-zzndwp\"><p>The uber-wealthy increased tenfold between 1980 and 2020  <\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/aside>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Welcome as the extra wealth might seem for its recipients, it ends up causing problems for them as a class. The uber-wealthy (those with fortunes greater than $10m) increased tenfold between 1980 and 2020, adjusted for inflation. A certain proportion of\u00a0these people have political ambitions: some run for political office themselves (like\u00a0Trump), others fund political candidates (like Peter Thiel). The more members of this elite class there are, the more aspirants for political power a society contains.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">By the 2010s the social pyramid in the US had grown exceptionally top-heavy: there were too many wannabe leaders and moguls competing for a fixed number of positions in the upper echelons of politics and business. In our model, this state of affairs has a name: elite overproduction.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Elite overproduction can be likened to a game of musical chairs \u2013 except the number of chairs stays constant, while the number of players is allowed to increase. As the game progresses, it\u00a0creates more and more angry losers. Some of those turn into \u201ccounter-elites\u201d: those willing to challenge the\u00a0established order; rebels and revolutionaries such as Oliver Cromwell and his Roundheads in the English civil war, or Vladimir Lenin and the Bolsheviks in Russia. In the contemporary US we might think of media disruptors such as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/tucker-carlson\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">Tucker Carlson,<\/a> or maverick entrepreneurs seeking political influence such as\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/technology\/elon-musk\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">Elon Musk<\/a> alongside countless less-prominent examples at lower levels in the system. As battles between the ruling elites and counter-elites heat up, the norms governing public discourse unravel and trust in institutions declines. The result is a\u00a0loss of civic cohesiveness and sense of national cooperation \u2013 without which states quickly rot from within. <\/p>\n<figure id=\"0592c7db-8876-4262-95b1-2d286fe91cbd\" data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" data-spacefinder-type=\"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.ImageBlockElement\" class=\" dcr-173mewl\"><figcaption data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" class=\"dcr-1fujct4\"><span class=\"dcr-1inf02i\"><svg width=\"18\" height=\"13\" viewbox=\"0 0 18 13\"><path d=\"M18 3.5v8l-1.5 1.5h-15l-1.5-1.5v-8l1.5-1.5h3.5l2-2h4l2 2h3.5l1.5 1.5zm-9 7.5c1.9 0 3.5-1.6 3.5-3.5s-1.6-3.5-3.5-3.5-3.5 1.6-3.5 3.5 1.6 3.5 3.5 3.5z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"dcr-1qvd3m6\">Media disruptor Tucker Carlson is among those willing to challenge the established order.<\/span> Photograph: Julia Demaree Nikhinson\/AP<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">One result of all this political dysfunction is an inability to agree on how the federal budget should be balanced. Together with the loss of trust and legitimacy, that accelerates the breakdown of state capacity. It\u2019s notable that a collapse in state finances is often the triggering event for a\u00a0revolution: this is what happened in France before 1789 and in the runup to\u00a0the English civil war.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">How does this landscape translate to party politics? The American ruling class, as it has evolved since the end of\u00a0the civil war in 1865, is basically a\u00a0coalition of the top wealth holders (the\u00a0proverbial 1%) and a highly educated or \u201ccredentialed\u201d class of professionals and graduates (whom we might call the 10%). A decade ago, the Republicans were the party of the 1%, while the Democrats were the party of the 10%. Since then, they have both changed out of all recognition.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">The recasting of the Republican party began with the unexpected <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2016\/nov\/09\/donald-trump-wins-us-election-news\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">victory of Donald Trump in 2016<\/a>. He was typical of political entrepreneurs in history who have channelled popular discontent to propel themselves to power (one example is Tiberius Gracchus, who founded the populist party in late Republican Rome). Not all of his initiatives went against the interests of the ruling class \u2013 for example, he succeeded in making the tax code more regressive. But many did, including his policies on immigration (economic elites tend to\u00a0favour open immigration as it suppresses wages); a rejection of traditional Republican free-market orthodoxy in favour of industrial policy; a scepticism of Nato and a\u00a0professed unwillingness to start new\u00a0conflicts abroad.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">It seemed to some as though the revolution had been squashed when a quintessentially establishment figure, Joe Biden, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/ng-interactive\/2020\/dec\/08\/us-election-results-2020-joe-biden-defeats-donald-trump-to-win-presidency\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">defeated<\/a> Trump in 2020. By\u00a02024 the Democrats had essentially become the party of the ruling class \u2013 of the 10% <em>and<\/em> of the 1%, having tamed its own populist wing (led by the Vermont senator Bernie Sanders). This realignment was signalled by Kamala Harris massively outspending Trump this election cycle, as well as mainstream Republicans, such as Liz and Dick Cheney, or neocons such as Bill Kristol, supporting the Harris ticket.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">The GOP, in the meantime, has transformed itself into a truly revolutionary party: one that represents working people (according to its leaders) or a radical rightwing agenda (according to its detractors). In\u00a0the process, it has largely purged itself of traditional Republicans.<\/p>\n<aside data-spacefinder-role=\"supporting\" class=\"dcr-1eyan6r\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 22 14\" style=\"fill:var(--pullquote-icon);\" class=\"dcr-scql1j\"><path d=\"M5.255 0h4.75c-.572 4.53-1.077 8.972-1.297 13.941H0C.792 9.104 2.44 4.53 5.255 0Zm11.061 0H21c-.506 4.53-1.077 8.972-1.297 13.941h-8.686c.902-4.837 2.485-9.411 5.3-13.941Z\"\/><\/svg><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"dcr-zzndwp\"><p>The defeat on 5\u00a0November represents one battle in an ongoing revolutionary war<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/aside>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">Trump was clearly the chief agent\u00a0of this change. But while the mainstream media and politicians obsess over him, it is important to recognise that he is now merely the tip of the iceberg: a diverse group of counter-elites has coalesced around the Trump ticket. Some of them, such as JD\u00a0Vance, had meteoric rises through the Republican ranks. Some, such as\u00a0Robert F Kennedy Jr and Tulsi Gabbard, defected from the Democrats. Others include tycoons such as Musk, or media figures, such as Joe Rogan, perhaps the most influential American podcaster. The\u00a0latter was once a supporter of the populist wing of the Democratic party (and Bernie Sanders in particular).<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">The main point here is that in 2024, the Democrats, having morphed into the party of the ruling class, had to contend not only with the tide of popular discontent but also a revolt of\u00a0the counter-elites. As such, it finds\u00a0itself in a predicament that has recurred thousands of times in human history, and there are two ways things play out from here.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">One is with the overthrow of established elites, as happened in the French and Russian Revolutions. The other is with the ruling elites backing a\u00a0rebalancing of the social system \u2013 most importantly, shutting down the\u00a0wealth pump and reversing popular\u00a0immiseration and elite overproduction. It happened about a\u00a0century ago with the New Deal. There\u2019s also a parallel in the Chartist period (1838\u20131857), when Great Britain\u00a0was the only European great\u00a0power to avoid the wave of revolutions\u00a0that swept Europe in 1848,\u00a0via major reform. But the US\u00a0has\u00a0so far failed to learn the historical lessons.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">What comes next? The electoral defeat on 5 November represents one battle in an ongoing revolutionary war. The triumphant counter-elites want to replace their counterparts \u2013 what they\u00a0sometimes call the \u201cdeep state\u201d \u2013 entirely. But history shows that success in achieving such goals is far\u00a0from assured. Their opponents are\u00a0pretty well entrenched in the bureaucracy and can effectively resist change. Ideological and personal tensions in the winning coalition may\u00a0result in it breaking apart (as they\u00a0say, revolutions devour their children). Most importantly, the challenges facing the new Trump administration are of the particularly intractable kind. What is their plan for tackling the exploding federal budget deficit? How\u00a0are they going to shut down the wealth\u00a0pump? And what will\u00a0the Democrats\u2019 response be? Will\u00a0their platform for 2028 include a\u00a0new New Deal, a commitment to major social\u00a0reform?<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">One thing is clear: whatever the choices and actions of the contending parties, they will not lead to an immediate resolution. Popular discontent in the US has been building up for more than four decades. Many years of real prosperity would be needed to persuade the public that the country is back on the right track. So, for now, we can expect a lasting age of discord. Let\u2019s hope that it won\u2019t spill over into a hot civil war.<\/p>\n<footer class=\"dcr-1eu361v\">\n<p class=\"dcr-1eu361v\"><span data-dcr-style=\"bullet\"\/> Peter Turchin is project leader at the Complexity Science Hub, Vienna, and\u00a0the author of End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration (Allen Lane).<\/p>\n<\/footer>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><div data-type=\"_mgwidget\" data-widget-id=\"1660802\">\r\n<\/div>\r\n<script>(function(w,q){w[q]=w[q]||[];w[q].push([\"_mgc.load\"])})(window,\"_mgq\");\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2024\/nov\/30\/the-deep-historical-forces-that-explain-trumps-win\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the days since the sweeping Republican victory in the US election, which gave the party control of the presidency, the\u00a0Senate and the House, commentators have analysed\u00a0and dissected the relative &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=131866\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8629],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-131866","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-u-s","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/131866","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=131866"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/131866\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=131866"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=131866"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=131866"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}