{"id":134064,"date":"2024-12-06T18:38:48","date_gmt":"2024-12-06T11:38:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=134064"},"modified":"2024-12-06T18:38:48","modified_gmt":"2024-12-06T11:38:48","slug":"what-to-expect-from-the-november-jobs-report-a-massive-bounce-back-from-octobers-dismal-total","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=134064","title":{"rendered":"What to expect from the November jobs report: A massive bounce back from October\u2019s dismal total"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-editable=\"content\" itemprop=\"articleBody\" data-reorderable=\"content\">\n<p>\n    <cite class=\"source__cite\"><br \/>\n      <span class=\"source__location\" data-editable=\"location\"\/><br \/>\n      <span class=\"source__text\" data-editable=\"source\">CNN<\/span><br \/>\n        \u00a0\u2014\u00a0<br \/>\n    <\/cite>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy00043b6md49iwveo@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            In October, the initial estimate for the month\u2019s employment gains was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2024\/11\/01\/economy\/us-jobs-report-october-final\/index.html\">a scant 12,000 jobs<\/a>.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy00053b6mx7f61o5w@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Economists are expecting 17 times that total for November.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy00063b6m5xq57nhj@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            When the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the November jobs report at 8:30 am ET on Friday, it is wholly anticipated that the data will reflect a sharp rebound \u2014 a reset, if you will \u2014 from an October report that was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2024\/10\/31\/economy\/us-jobs-report-october-preview\/index.html\">bogged down and muddied<\/a> by back-to-back hurricanes and a major labor strike.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy00073b6mj0o8ekfi@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            When plugging those striking and weather-waylaid workers back in, November\u2019s report is expected to show a net gain of 207,500 jobs, according to consensus estimates on FactSet. The unemployment rate \u2014 which has served as an unofficial polestar amid the wild distortions \u2014 is expected to remain at 4.1%, where it has been since September.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy00083b6mq18jka1q@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            \u201cWe had a report last month [for] which I told my readers, \u2018Just throw it away.\u2019 The Bureau of Labor Statistics basically said, \u2018You know, we really can\u2019t tell you anything about the effect of the hurricanes,\u2019\u201d Dan North, Allianz Trade\u2019s senior economist for North America, told CNN. \u201cSo, what\u2019s going to happen this coming month? Is there going to be a huge bounce back? Well, that would be rational.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy00093b6msin6rgiu@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Gus Faucher, senior vice president and chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group, is anticipating job growth of 250,000 positions in November. Such a sharp, upward swing would indicate underlying payroll growth of about 150,000 jobs per month, he said.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy000a3b6mry7chtvw@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            \u201cThat\u2019s a good, solid number,\u201d he told CNN. \u201cI think that the labor market continues to do well and is supporting income growth, which allows for consumers to increase their spending.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy000b3b6mood834jf@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Feeding into the confidence that the labor market remains on steady ground \u2014 which would make the October report a one-off \u2014 is that layoff activity hasn\u2019t spiked and unemployment claims have trended down in recent weeks (after a hurricane-related bump).\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy000c3b6m2n37r7kc@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            \u201cWhich suggests that the labor market is still doing quite well,\u201d Faucher said.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy000d3b6mw6gqwt3t@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            The level of job openings nationwide rose to 7.7 million in October from 7.4 million in September, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Department of Labor. That beat economists\u2019 expectations of 7.5 million job openings for October, according to consensus estimates from FactSet.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy000e3b6mq10ivdls@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            The number of people quitting their jobs rose by 228,000 to 3.3 million in October from September. But, compared to a year ago, the number of quits is down by 308,000. Also, the number of people laid off from jobs declined by 169,000 in October to 1.6 million from September.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy000f3b6my78hiz8y@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            The weekly jobless claims data also is telling another story about the labor market: Employers have pulled back on hiring.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy000g3b6mzeqkeqpb@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            The number of continued claims for unemployment benefits, which are filed by people who have received unemployment insurance for at least a week or more, has been bumping up against a three-year high.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy000h3b6msdqnsht5@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            The latest claims data, released Thursday morning, showed a drop in continuing claims; however, the first-time filings for jobless benefits (a proxy for layoffs) increased by 9,000 to land at 224,000, a six-week high.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy000i3b6mt1ojwlmy@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Despite the upswing, initial claims have remained fairly steady in recent months and below historical averages. Separately on Thursday, Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas\u2019 latest look at job cut activity showed that announcements totaled 57,727 in November, a 3.8% increase from October.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy000j3b6m5f4fex10@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Still, layoff activity remains fairly tame. The layoffs and discharges rate (layoffs as a percentage of total employment) was just 1% in October, hovering near an all-time low, JOLTS data showed.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy000k3b6mx3arobmo@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            \u201cOverall, we still have got a tight labor market and we see that layoffs are historically low right now,\u201d Faucher said. \u201cI think that businesses are reluctant to lay workers off. They\u2019re hiring less, but they\u2019re not laying off. \u2026 This is a good time to hold a job.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy000l3b6maz2zvggv@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Despite the muddied October data, the US labor market activity remains historic: This period of employment expansion is tied for the third-longest in history, BLS data shows.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy000m3b6mb7m161jy@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Still, a clean October report could have gone a long way in providing some clarity about whether the labor market was weakening or picking back up, Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors, told CNN last month.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy000n3b6mvpq5g08j@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Weaker-than-expected July and August jobs reports (that subsequently were revised higher) combined with slowing inflation helped spur rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which had become more attuned to the health of the labor market.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy000o3b6mrwg9ukon@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            \u201cWe continue to be confident that, with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the economy and the labor market can be maintained, with inflation moving sustainably down to 2%,\u201d Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last month.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy000p3b6msvc4gou7@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            However, the coming weeks and months could shift the narrative for the labor market, inflation and the overall economy.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy000q3b6mkx614cwk@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            President-elect Donald Trump is promising massive tariffs (which economists say could come at a cost to US businesses and consumers) as well as mass deportations and immigration restrictions.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy000r3b6mob9sw48t@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            The rebound and subsequent surge in immigration following the pandemic has contributed greatly to monthly job gains.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy000s3b6m3wjsj26v@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            \u201cLabor supply has been one of the reasons the Fed\u2019s been able to cut to this point,\u201d Brett Ryan, senior US economist at Deutsche Bank, said in an interview. \u201cIf that equation changes, it\u2019s another reason not to cut. And our baseline forecast is, we don\u2019t have [the Fed] cutting again after the December meeting. We don\u2019t have them cutting at all next year.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy000t3b6magbf5jhd@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            It\u2019s also possible that October\u2019s 12,000 figure, which was the lowest monthly gain in nearly four years, would be revised upward.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy000u3b6mh141uil9@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            The response rate for the establishment survey \u2014 one of two surveys that feed into the monthly employment report \u2014 was just 47.4% in October, and the lowest since 1991, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/web\/empsit\/cesregrec.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">BLS data shows<\/a>. That rate has averaged 65% in the past four years.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy000v3b6mhjw942cu@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Additionally, the BLS did not make any adjustments to its estimation procedures for either the establishment or household survey; so, by letting the numbers speak for themselves, that sets the stage for this meek 12,000-job figure to grow in the coming months.\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy000w3b6mc5xl28ln@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            When it comes to the jobs report, monthly estimates are considered preliminary when first published, because not all respondents report their payroll data in time (and that\u2019s especially true this time; because in moments of crisis, submitting data to the BLS is not a priority for those dealing with the devastation of the storm).\n    <\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder vossi-paragraph\" data-uri=\"cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/cm4bp8zhy000x3b6m3cn376z3@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\" data-article-gutter=\"true\">\n            Those survey-based estimates are revised twice further and then held constant until the BLS applies its robust \u201cbenchmarking\u201d process to square the estimates with quarterly tax filings.\n    <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><div data-type=\"_mgwidget\" data-widget-id=\"1660802\">\r\n<\/div>\r\n<script>(function(w,q){w[q]=w[q]||[];w[q].push([\"_mgc.load\"])})(window,\"_mgq\");\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2024\/12\/06\/economy\/us-jobs-report-november-final\/index.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CNN \u00a0\u2014\u00a0 In October, the initial estimate for the month\u2019s employment gains was a scant 12,000 jobs. Economists are expecting 17 times that total for November. When the Bureau of &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=134064\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-134064","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-business","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/134064","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=134064"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/134064\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=134064"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=134064"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=134064"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}