{"id":140891,"date":"2025-03-06T07:58:27","date_gmt":"2025-03-06T00:58:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=140891"},"modified":"2025-03-06T07:58:27","modified_gmt":"2025-03-06T00:58:27","slug":"what-a-european-model-forecast-tells-us-about-the-upcoming-hurricane-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=140891","title":{"rendered":"What a European model forecast tells us about the upcoming hurricane season"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"featured featured-video video-ct\">\n<div class=\"video-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"video-container\">\n<div data-widget-type=\"embed\" data-video-id=\"fmc-wc1vys17qij3h9dm\" class=\"m video-player\"><a href=\"\" class=\"video-link\"><span class=\"overlay\"\/> <picture><source media=\"(max-width: 767px)\" width=\"640\" height=\"358\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.foxweather.com\/static-media.fox.com\/fmc\/prod\/weather\/37959523780\/320\/179\/4939xkg3slntihag.jpg?ve=1&amp;tl=1, https:\/\/images.foxweather.com\/static-media.fox.com\/fmc\/prod\/weather\/37959523780\/640\/358\/4939xkg3slntihag.jpg?ve=1&amp;tl=1 2x\"><source media=\"(min-width: 768px) and (max-width: 1023px)\" width=\"1536\" height=\"864\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.foxweather.com\/static-media.fox.com\/fmc\/prod\/weather\/37959523780\/768\/432\/4939xkg3slntihag.jpg?ve=1&amp;tl=1, https:\/\/images.foxweather.com\/static-media.fox.com\/fmc\/prod\/weather\/37959523780\/1536\/864\/4939xkg3slntihag.jpg?ve=1&amp;tl=1 2x\"><source media=\"(min-width: 1024px)\" width=\"1984\" height=\"1116\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.foxweather.com\/static-media.fox.com\/fmc\/prod\/weather\/37959523780\/992\/558\/4939xkg3slntihag.jpg?ve=1&amp;tl=1, https:\/\/images.foxweather.com\/static-media.fox.com\/fmc\/prod\/weather\/37959523780\/1984\/1116\/4939xkg3slntihag.jpg?ve=1&amp;tl=1 2x\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.foxweather.com\/static-media.fox.com\/fmc\/prod\/weather\/37959523780\/992\/558\/4939xkg3slntihag.jpg?ve=1&amp;tl=1\" alt=\"With less than 100 days to go before the start of the hurricane season, Bryan Norcross breaks down which factors to watch this year in the tropics.\" width=\"992\" height=\"558\"\/><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><\/a> <!----><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"info\">\n<div class=\"caption\">\n<p class=\"sub-text\">With less than 100 days to go before the start of the hurricane season, Bryan Norcross breaks down which factors to watch this year in the tropics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p data-v-438398f6=\"\">As the 2025 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxweather.com\/category\/hurricanes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">hurricane<\/a> season approaches, global forecast models are beginning to offer a glimpse of what to expect, not only in the Atlantic basin but also across other oceans in the Northern Hemisphere.<\/p>\n<p data-v-438398f6=\"\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/charts.ecmwf.int\/products\/seasonal_system5_tstorm_frequency?base_time=202503010000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">latest output from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts<\/a>, commonly referred to as the ECMWF, suggests that the Atlantic hurricane basin is likely to experience an average or near-average season, with the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxweather.com\/learn\/hurricane-season-ace-impact-scale-index-accumulated-cyclone-energy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)<\/a> reaching about 90% of normal levels through September. Subsequent model runs will provide forecasts extending into the final months of the hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30.<\/p>\n<p data-v-438398f6=\"\">Based on these early projections, forecasters expect around 12 named storms, including five hurricanes and a couple of major hurricanes, to form during the majority of the season, but it is important to note there is no indication, so far, that the year will feature an extreme amount of activity.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-v-438398f6=\"\">Both the western and eastern Pacific are also expected to experience normal or slightly below-normal activity through September, which means none of the Northern Hemisphere\u2019s three largest basins will likely see a banner year.<\/p>\n<div class=\"featured featured-image component-center\">\n<div class=\"m\"><picture><source media=\"(max-width: 767px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.foxweather.com\/static.foxweather.com\/www.foxweather.com\/content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/288\/162\/emc.png?ve=1&amp;tl=1, https:\/\/images.foxweather.com\/static.foxweather.com\/www.foxweather.com\/content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/576\/324\/emc.png?ve=1&amp;tl=1 2x\" width=\"576\" height=\"324\"><source media=\"(min-width: 768px) and (max-width: 1023px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.foxweather.com\/static.foxweather.com\/www.foxweather.com\/content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/720\/405\/emc.png?ve=1&amp;tl=1, https:\/\/images.foxweather.com\/static.foxweather.com\/www.foxweather.com\/content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/1440\/810\/emc.png?ve=1&amp;tl=1 2x\" width=\"1440\" height=\"810\"><source media=\"(min-width: 1024px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.foxweather.com\/static.foxweather.com\/www.foxweather.com\/content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/668\/376\/emc.png?ve=1&amp;tl=1, https:\/\/images.foxweather.com\/static.foxweather.com\/www.foxweather.com\/content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/1336\/752\/emc.png?ve=1&amp;tl=1 2x\" width=\"1336\" height=\"752\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"668\" height=\"376\" src=\"https:\/\/images.foxweather.com\/static.foxweather.com\/www.foxweather.com\/content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/668\/376\/emc.png?ve=1&amp;tl=1\" alt=\"ECMWF Forecast through September 2025\"\/><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><\/div>\n<div class=\"info\">\n<div class=\"caption\">\n<p class=\"title\">ECMWF Forecast through September 2025<\/p>\n<p class=\"sub-text\"><strong> (ECMWF \/ FOX Weather)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p data-v-438398f6=\"\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxweather.com\/weather-news\/tropical-cyclone-summary\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON GUIDE<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p data-v-438398f6=\"\">Dr. Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University, explained that the subdued outlook for the Atlantic basin is likely due to near-average sea surface temperatures and a neutral phase of the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-v-438398f6=\"\">Since the ENSO is expected to remain in the neutral phase, neither a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxweather.com\/category\/la-nina\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">La Ni\u00f1a<\/a> nor an El Ni\u00f1o will dominate weather patterns, which adds a level of complexity to the forecast.<\/p>\n<p data-v-438398f6=\"\">The ECMWF forecast contrasts with last year\u2019s predictions, which produced some of the most aggressive outlooks in its history.<\/p>\n<p data-v-438398f6=\"\">In 2024, the model projected an ACE value for the Atlantic basin between 200 and 300, which would have been historic if it had come to fruition.<\/p>\n<p data-v-438398f6=\"\">The actual combined ACE value for the 2024 season ended up closer to 161, highlighting the uncertainty inherent in long-range predictions and the tendency for models to misinterpret atmospheric conditions.<\/p>\n<div class=\"featured featured-image component-center\">\n<div class=\"m\"><picture><source media=\"(max-width: 767px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.foxweather.com\/static.foxweather.com\/www.foxweather.com\/content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/288\/162\/18.png?ve=1&amp;tl=1, https:\/\/images.foxweather.com\/static.foxweather.com\/www.foxweather.com\/content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/576\/324\/18.png?ve=1&amp;tl=1 2x\" width=\"576\" height=\"324\"><source media=\"(min-width: 768px) and (max-width: 1023px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.foxweather.com\/static.foxweather.com\/www.foxweather.com\/content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/720\/405\/18.png?ve=1&amp;tl=1, https:\/\/images.foxweather.com\/static.foxweather.com\/www.foxweather.com\/content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/1440\/810\/18.png?ve=1&amp;tl=1 2x\" width=\"1440\" height=\"810\"><source media=\"(min-width: 1024px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.foxweather.com\/static.foxweather.com\/www.foxweather.com\/content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/668\/376\/18.png?ve=1&amp;tl=1, https:\/\/images.foxweather.com\/static.foxweather.com\/www.foxweather.com\/content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/1336\/752\/18.png?ve=1&amp;tl=1 2x\" width=\"1336\" height=\"752\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"668\" height=\"376\" src=\"https:\/\/images.foxweather.com\/static.foxweather.com\/www.foxweather.com\/content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/668\/376\/18.png?ve=1&amp;tl=1\" alt=\"2024 hurricane season summary\"\/><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><\/div>\n<div class=\"info\">\n<div class=\"caption\">\n<p class=\"title\">2024 hurricane season summary<\/p>\n<p class=\"sub-text\"><strong> (FOX Weather)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p data-v-438398f6=\"\">Hurricane experts agree that forecast models often perform poorly when factors such as dry air and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxweather.com\/earth-space\/5-things-to-know-about-the-saharan-dust-plume\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Saharan Air Layer<\/a>, which affect tropical cyclone formation, are prevalent in the basin.<\/p>\n<p data-v-438398f6=\"\">Notably, the current forecast aligns with a continuing global trend of slow starts to cyclone seasons across the world\u2019s various basins.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-v-438398f6=\"\">The recent trend has been attributed to the state of ENSO, but some experts believe that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxweather.com\/category\/climate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">climate<\/a> change could be playing a more significant role in shaping tropical weather patterns than is realized.<\/p>\n<p data-v-438398f6=\"\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxweather.com\/weather-news\/hurricane-season-outlook-2025-preview-colorado-state-klotzbach\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>HURRICANE EXPERT SHARES SNEAK PEEK INTO FORECAST PROCESS MONTHS AHEAD OF INAUGURAL TROPICAL OUTLOOK<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p data-v-438398f6=\"\">Forecasts from the ECMWF and other global models are expected to continue fluctuating as more data becomes available, with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxweather.com\/weather-news\/hurricane-season-outlook-2025-preview-colorado-state-klotzbach\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">seasonal outlooks from meteorologists<\/a> set to be released in the spring, ahead of the June 1 start to the hurricane season.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-v-438398f6=\"\">Early indications suggest that the 2025 season will be close to average or slightly above average, well short of initial expectations released during the run-up to the 2024 season.<\/p>\n<p data-v-438398f6=\"\">Hurricane experts stress the importance of reading too much into initial forecasts, as early models only provide a broad picture of expected activity.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-v-438398f6=\"\">Variables such as shifts in ocean temperatures, changes in atmospheric pressure, dry air and other unpredictable phenomena can dramatically alter a season\u2019s activity.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-layout-key=\"-fb+5w+4e-db+86\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3711241968723425\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"7910942971\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><div data-type=\"_mgwidget\" data-widget-id=\"1660802\">\r\n<\/div>\r\n<script>(function(w,q){w[q]=w[q]||[];w[q].push([\"_mgc.load\"])})(window,\"_mgq\");\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxweather.com\/weather-news\/european-centre-for-medium-range-weather-forecasts\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With less than 100 days to go before the start of the hurricane season, Bryan Norcross breaks down which factors to watch this year in the tropics. As the 2025 &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/?p=140891\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9472],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-140891","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-weather","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/140891","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=140891"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/140891\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=140891"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=140891"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hotvideos24.online\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=140891"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}