Trump Will Test European Solidarity on NATO, Ukraine and Trade

The victory of Donald J. Trump will test the ability of America’s European allies to maintain solidarity, do more to build up their own militaries and defend their economic interests.

In anticipation of a Trump victory, there have already been efforts to try to ensure continued support for Ukraine, continuity in NATO and to craft a response should Mr. Trump make good on his threat to apply blanket tariffs on goods imported into the United States.

But the Europeans have a long way to go. A second Trump presidency could serve as a catalyst for Europe to fortify itself in the face of a more undependable America. But it is far from clear the continent is prepared to seize that moment.

With both the French and German governments weakened by domestic politics, a strong European response may be difficult to construct. And even after one term of Mr. Trump and a war in Ukraine, Europeans have been slow to change.

“A Trump victory is very painful for Europeans, as it confronts them with a question they’ve tried hard to hide from: ‘How do we deal with a United States that sees us more as a competitor and a nuisance than a friend to work with?’ ” said Georgina Wright, deputy director for International Studies at the Institut Montaigne in Paris. “It should unite Europe, but that does not mean Europe necessarily will unite.”

The unpredictability of Mr. Trump — emboldened and empowered by what may be a Republican sweep of both houses of Congress — concerns European allies, since unpredictability cannot be prepared for.