Bryan Norcross: Hurricane Rafael is pulling away from Florida and will weaken over the Gulf

FOX Weather is your Hurricane HQ.

(FOX Weather)

Updated at 10 a.m. ET on Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024

The last outer bands of Hurricane Rafael will clear the lower Florida Keys this morning as the storm heads toward the central Gulf of Mexico. Winds over all of South Florida will decrease through the day, and any sign of the hurricane should be gone by this evening.

Satellite imagery.

(NOAA)

Winds gusted 45-50 mph at Key West and Marathon. There was minor flooding in the Keys yesterday when high tide came in about a foot above normal.

Rafael is still a healthy Category 2 hurricane, but it’s heading toward hostile conditions. In the central Gulf, steering currents will collapse, while dry air and strong upper winds are forecast to take their toll on the circulation. Many of the computer forecasts show Rafael dying out over the open water. 

There is high confidence that Rafael will not be a significant threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast, but that’s not 100% certain in Mexico.

If Rafael tracks far enough south in the Gulf, it will avoid some of the hostile upper-level winds and could retain some of its strength into next week. The European computer model has insisted that Rafael will turn south and approach the Mexican coast in several days. The National Hurricane Center has adjusted its forecast to indicate the possibility of the storm eventually arcing to the south.

In the extreme southern Gulf, the environment is forecast to be marginally conducive for at least a tropical storm. People along the Mexican coast will have to watch for developments, though it’s very possible that Rafael will die out before it gets there – if it heads that way.

A tropical disturbance has a low chance of developing in the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean.

(National Hurricane Center)

Near the northeast Caribbean, a robust tropical disturbance is moving west toward South Florida. The atmospheric pattern does not appear conducive to development, so the National Hurricane Center is giving the system a low chance of evolving into a tropical depression.

It will likely reach South Florida as a slightly gusty moisture surge around Sunday. It’s something to keep an eye on, but it’s not likely to be a problem.

Long-range forecasts show cold fronts sweeping across the Gulf and Florida beginning late next week. That should end any more tropical threats this far north. Although with the Caribbean water so extra-warm, we shouldn’t count chickens.