Tropical update: Tracking new disturbance in the Caribbean
HOUSTON — Hurricane season goes until Nov. 30 and we are tracking a new area of potential development in the Caribbean.
Right now, the National Hurricane Center has an 90% chance of tropical development over the next seven days and a 70% chance over the next two days.
This time of year, climatology favors an eventual north to northeast path. That would lift the storm north into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, potentially steering it toward Florida as a strong tropical storm or hurricane.
Right now, showers and thunderstorms in the Caribbean become better organized on Thursday and Friday showing signs of our next tropical depression or potentially Tropical Storm Sara.
Timing is everything. As it looks now, a strong Canadian cold front will race south and push through Texas and off into the Gulf of Mexico early next week. If this forecast verifies, this will steer the storm away from Texas and toward the Gulf coast of Florida.
Above-average sea surface temperatures and low wind shear will make conditions favorable for development. If you are keeping track of the names at home you will see Sara is the next name on the list and then Tony.
Right now a strong cold front that will arrive in Texas on Monday will help to steer the moisture and energy to our south and east.
However, it is too far out to know specifics but we will continue to update you.
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