Fantasy football rankings Week 11: Sleepers, projections, starts, Russell Wilson, Calvin Ridley and more
The NFL has reached Week 11 already, and the fantasy football rankings have some interesting late-season movement. Who would have thought we’d be benching Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb, yet here we are… possibly.
Reminder! I always include some fun ranks! This can be anything from cartoons to players from the 80s to things not to do when you’re over 30 — feel free to suggest yours. And, I try to answer as many comments as humanly possible… however… if it’s a simple WDIS within a position or “Who should I trade for?” type question, those are 99% covered with the ranks and link to the trade charts. Let’s duckin’ go!
#CheckTheLink-age
Week 11 Waiver Wire
Week 11 SOS Ranks
Fantasy 101 (weather, start/sit, trading, more)
🎙️All in Fantasy Podcast🎙️
WEEK 11 FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEWS
BYES: ARI, CAR, NYG, TB
Commanders at Eagles, Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Packers at Bears, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Since Week 6, Christian Watson has run 65.0% of routes with a 14.8 TmTGT%. Dontayvion Wicks is at 37.1 and 10.9. respectively. Watson is ahead of Wicks, but even then, Wicks eats into the volume enough to prevent Watson from being trustable.
- Thomas Brown takes over for Shane Waldron as the Bears offensive coordinator, but I wouldn’t expect much improvement after spending his 2023 season trying to coach up Bryce Young. There is a glimmer of hope for Keenan Allen given what we saw from Young and Adam Thielen in the first half of last year, and there is similarities in their usage.
Jaguars at Lions, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Whether it’s Trevor Lawrence or Mac Jones, Brian Thomas Jr. could have another weak showing (health or not), as the Lions run man coverage the most (40.0%), and Thomas goes from 2.48 YPRR against zone to 1.44 when facing man.
- If it is Jones under center, the entire offense is a fade outside of Travis Etienne Jr. and Evan Engram, and yes, I like Etienne whether or not Tank Bigsby is active — as from previous weeks, Etienne is the passing game running back of choice. If Lawrence somehow returns, Thomas goes back to Top 30.
- The only teams not to have a running back score against the Jaguars were the Browns (Week 2) and Vikings (last week), even with Aaron Jones and Cam Akers combining for 30-for-126 on the ground. David Montgomery is a good touchdown bet.
Vikings at Titans, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- The Vikings blitz the most — 27.3% of the time — and Will Levis has the second-worst YD/Comp when blitzed (6.8), ranking 43 of 44 QBs. Only Aidan O’Connell is worse (5.5).
- Even while getting banged up, Aaron Jones is still inside the Top 10 for team RBTouch% (66.9), and it jumps to 86.7% when down by a touchdown or more (third, behind only J.K. Dobbins 100.0% and Barkley 88.0%).
- Jordan Addison had one game over 17.4 TmTGT% before T.J. Hockenson’s return and then target rates of 15.2 and 13.5 the past two games. He also has just two games over 8.1 fantasy points, which means Addison isn’t more than a Hail Mary start.
Raiders at Dolphins, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- In Jakobi Meyers’ four games since Week 4 (when Davante Adams was done playing for the Raiders), he has a 31.1 TmTGT% with 11.6 FPPG, which ranks fourth and 24th, respectively, among WRs.
- Week 10 was Tyreek Hill’s highest weekly fantasy finish since Week 1. He was WR23 with 10.2 points, and Week 1 was also the only time Hill topped 10.2 points (22.5). His wrist injury looks to be a real issue, as is the inconsistent Dolphins offense. Hill still has weekly WR1 upside, but he’s no longer a must-start in shallower leagues.
Rams at Patriots, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- We could see extra Drake Maye rushing, as the Rams lead the league in Press% when sending 5+ rushers (55.1%), and despite not starting until Week 6, Maye has the eighth-most QB rushing yards when pressured (118).
- Week 10 was the first time since Week 2 that the opposing running backs haven’t totaled at least 112 rushing yards against the Patriots.
- Since their bye, the Rams have allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (90.0), and while that started with the Raiders, it includes the Vikings, Seahawks and Dolphins. So, if you want to take the past three weeks, they actually improve to fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (79.3) and fewest YPC (3.1).
Browns at Saints, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Since Week 7, Cedric Tillman is second in FPPG (18.7 — 22.2 for Ja’Marr Chase) with a 23.7 TmTGT% (17th), 9.4 TD/TGT% (15th), 4 red zone targets and 3 end zone targets.
- Yes, Marquez Valdes-Scantling likely posted his best game of 2024 in Week 10, but Derek Carr is fifth in the percentage of attempts for 20+ Air Yards (14.7). As long as MVS is a top-two starter for the Saints, he’ll be a weekly boom/bust WR4.
Colts at Jets, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Ravens at Steelers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Trying to predict Zay Flowers vs. Rashod Bateman (and Mark Andrews)? Flowers has a 3.04 YPRR vs. Cover-3 (Bateman 1.77; Andrews 0.82) vs. 2.07 Flowers, 2.05 Andrews and 1.79 Bateman against anything else, and the Steelers are third in Cover-3 at 46.7%.
- Only Anthony Richardson has a higher percentage of attempts going for 20+ Air Yards (17.6 to 23.3) than Russell Wilson.
- Since Wilson took over, George Pickens is fifth in FPPG (15.7), eighth in TmAirYD% (41.2), seventh in TD/TGT% (9.5, of qualified WRs), and second in YPRR (3.21).
Falcons at Broncos, Sunday, 4 p.m. ET
- As mentioned a few times this season, Bijan Robinson sees a larger share when the Falcons are down by a touchdown or more — 67.6 RBTouch% to 25.0% for Tyler Allgeier, compared to a 50/50 perfect split when up by a touchdown or more.
- Audric Estime is an interesting stash, but I wouldn’t look to slam him in lineups immediately, especially since he didn’t have any of the RB targets last week (both went to Javonte Williams). Even if Estime is the new lead to stay, it would be as the primary early and short yardage back, with some goal-line use mixed in, which caps him as an RB3 for now.
Seahawks at 49ers, Sunday, 4 p.m. ET
- Assuming DK Metcalf is back, Jaxon Smith-Njigba goes back to a high-upside, but inconsistent, WR4. JSN goes from 21.1 TmTGT% with Metcalf to 27.7% without Metcalf, and some crazier jumps in YPRR (1.18 to 2.68), TD/TGT% (1.9 to 8.7) and YPC (8.6 to 18.4).
- Not only did Jauan Jennings replace Brandon Aiyuk in production, he did so in Aiyuk’s role too — 74.5% of his snaps were with him lined up out wide after entering the game at 48.9% for the season. When lined up wide, Jennings has 17.6 YPC compared to 13.9 otherwise.
Chiefs at Bills, Sunday, 4 p.m. ET
- The Chiefs might want to lower their Blitz% (third-highest, 23.7%), as Josh Allen has 11 touchdowns and no interceptions when blitzed, with a 13.9 TD/Att% compared to 6-4-2.7% when not blitzed.
- Interestingly, their Blitz% in the playoff matchup last year was their lowest against Allen (22.2%), when it had been 32.9% in all the previous matchups. It was Allen’s worst showing against the Chiefs — just 7.2 YD/Comp and one touchdown in the 27-24 loss.
- If Isiah Pacheco returns this week, I’d start him over Kareem Hunt. History shows when a team’s replacement is performing at a high level and the incumbent returns when the team doesn’t need to push it, the lead/incumbent often goes back to his role (even if slightly diminished).
Bengals at Chargers, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
- Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have been better with Tee Higgins on the field, though there are still big games to be had, as seen last week. On top of that, the Chargers run the second-most zone coverage (81.9%), and Chase is fifth in YPRR at 3.19 against zone.
- J.K. Dobbins had 75.0 RBTouch% and 75.3% of the goa- line attempts with Gus Edwards out, and those numbers dropped back to 60.0% and 55.6%, respectively, with Edwards back.
Texans at Cowboys, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
- Nico Collins is expected to practice all week and return for MNF. C.J. Stroud has been pressured on 39.4% of his dropbacks (sixth most), and he has a 38.9 Comp% and 3.8% turnover per touch without Collins while under pressure, compared to 70.6% and 0.0%, respectively, with Collins. I’m not saying it’s going to be magically back to 2023 Stroud, but this is significant.
- Cooper Rush is the first quarterback — EVER! — to have a YPC under 4.0 (at 3.5) with 20+ attempts and 10+ completions. Yes. Ever. All of football history. Oh, he’s starting again this week.
WEEK 11 SLEEPERS
QUARTERBACK
- Russell Wilson, PIT — If you skipped the game preview (above), it’s been good with Russ, and he should cook against the Ravens (lack of a) pass defense.
- C.J. Stroud, HOU — See above. Risky, but Collins is back and the Cowboys stink.
RUNNING BACK
- Nick Chubb, CLE — Rooting for a full workload off the bye, and the Saints defense is tasty.
- J.K. Dobbins, LAC — Not a true “sleeper,” but given the stats listed above with Edwards back, I’m still trusting Dobbins in this one given his passing game upside.
WIDE RECEIVER
- Jauan Jennings, SF — He’s going to keep the run going against the Seahawks defense.
- Calvin Ridley, TEN — Volume and the Vikings secondary help offset the quarterback play.
- Tank Dell, HOU — Better with Collins on the field (see: 2023).
TIGHT END
- Jonnu Smith, MIA — Nice matchup for tight ends, and he’s seen at least four targets with 3+ receptions in each of his past five games.
FUN WITH RANKS
One of the more fun suggestions, and seeing some people complain about the Texans’ alternates in Week 10 made me remember it…
Top 10 All-Time Worst NFL Uniforms
- Giants throwbacks — Red, blue and… brown? You saw them this year. Even Malik Nabers mocked them.
- Eagles throwbacks — Those baby blue and yellow horrors.
- Steelers bumblebee — You know them. You hate them. Even in black-and-white (when they’re from), they’re still horrible.
- Jaguars mustard — The mustard color jerseys with black sleeves and color-transition helmets.
- Broncos throwbacks — Yellow and brown ones from the AFL that they brought back for the 2009 celebration. They should have left them back in the AFL.
- Seahawks — The neon green ones with navy blue on the sleeves. Why?
- Packers what? — Blue and gold but with brown helmets?! It was due to an NFL rule (in 2011) but no excuses for this nonsense.
- Broncos (again) — From the 60s — the Bronco on the helmet is derpy, and the white jerseys with orange kind of on the sleeve are awful.
- Bears 1994 throwback — Maybe our grandparents can tell us why teams loved ugly stripping so much back in the day.
- Rams (when they were stuck) — Due to the NFL rule (again) about changing uniforms within a certain time, the Rams were stuck with white in their helmets and gold for the rest in the worst version of their uniforms.
Honorable Mentions (Non-NFL)
- Maryland Terps — White with the state flag on the shoulders and helmets — I’m in Virginia and knew the flag was the representation goal, and it’s still a mess and hard to see.
- Montreal Canadiens — Going with the trifecta coloring of the bumblebee look? I don’t know… barbershop pole? Look them up.
- University of Florida — They were from 2017, and they were supposed to look like gator skin… I think? They were worse looking than their rival FSU’s record this year.
WEEK 11 FANTASY FOOTBALL PROJECTIONS
🚨 HEADS UP 🚨 These can differ from my rankings, and MY RANKS are the order I’d start players outside of added context, such as, “Need highest upside, even if risky.” Also, based on 4-point TDs for QB, 6-point rest, and Half-PPR
Download Link Added Thursday
WEEK 11 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS
🚨 HEADS UP 🚨
- There is no perfect widget out there, sadly, still. I know many view this on your phone, but 1) use the rankings widget on a PC/laptop/etc. if possible or 2) open in your phone’s browser, especially for Android users, to get the scrolling to work (or Android people can try a two-finger scroll).
- ECR = “Expert” Consensus Ranking (which isn’t updated by everyone consistently, so take with a grain of salt).
- Updated regularly, so check up to lineups locking.
(Top photo of Russell Wilson: Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
Source link