Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 forms, forecast to become Tropical Storm Sara

MIAMI—A disturbance swirling over the Caribbean Sea on Wednesday has now been designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen, and forecasters say the system will likely strengthen into Tropical Storm Sara in the coming days.

The PTC designation allows the NHC and other governments to issue tropical weather watches and warnings when a disturbance isn’t quite at tropical storm strength, but is expected to get there soon with storm impacts occurring within 36 hours. 

Some of those models show that the system, previously designated as Invest 99L on Tuesday, could continue to strengthen and become a hurricane. Hurricane Watches have been posted for parts of Honduras with Tropical Storm Watches in northern Nicaragua.

“The atmospheric pattern over the Caribbean appears extremely conducive for likely-Sara to further organize and strengthen,” FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said. “The only obvious impediment to the system becoming an intense hurricane in the Caribbean appears to be interaction with land.”

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What’s the latest with Potential Tropical Cyclone 19?

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen is located in the Caribbean Sea about 460 miles east of Isla Guanaja in Honduras. Its peak winds are 30 mph, and it is slowly moving westward.

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What’s the forecast for Potential Tropical Cyclone 19?

The NHC says Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 will continue to move westward toward the western Caribbean Sea, and Jamaica should see showers and thunderstorms associated with the system throughout the next day. 

Strengthening is expected during the next few days. The system is forecast to become Tropical Storm Sara on Thursday and continue strengthening as it moves near the coast of Central America.

The storm is forecast to bring life-threatening rainfall to northern Honduras of 10–20 inches, with isolated areas seeing 30 inches, the NHC said. 

“This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza,” the NHC said.

Tropical storm-force winds of at least 40 mph are likely in the area by late Thursday, with the potential for hurricane-force winds in eastern Honduras on Friday. Storm surge of 1–3 feet is possible along the Honduras coastline north of where the cyclone approaches or moves onshore. 

Florida on alert as long-range forecasts indicate possible impacts from likely-Sara

Likely-Sara is forecast to meander around Central America through the weekend and into Mexico‘s Yucatán Peninsula into early next week. 

“The steering currents across the Caribbean are very light,” Norcross says.

After that, computer forecast models indicate that the system could restrengthen as it hangs out in the area and takes advantage of the warm waters and low wind shear.

From there, forecasters said an area of high pressure will build to the north of the system next week, and where it sets up will ultimately determine the path of future Sara.

The steering currents may push the system into Central America or allow likely-Sara to move north and track into the Gulf of Mexico sometime next week – and could eventually impact Florida.

“The fact that so many of the variety of computer forecast models are indicating a threat to Florida is concerning, but things can change,” Norcross said. “As always, when a system is just developing, forecast errors are likely to be large.”

Norcross continued and said that there was nothing to do right now except stay informed, so be sure to download the free FOX Weather app and enable notifications to be alerted to any changes in the forecast.