COVID remarkably scarce in Boston area ahead of Thanksgiving

“I’m actually very pleasantly surprised to see that low level,” said Dr. Sabrina Assoumou, an infectious disease physician at Boston Medical Center and an associate professor of medicine at Boston University.

Waste water testing, which identifies viral particles in sewage, is among the most effective early warning systems for COVID surges. In the seven-day period ending Nov. 21, the average count of COVID virus particles in waste water in the northern section of the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority, which includes Boston and its northern and western suburbs, was about 63 percent lower than in the same period last year. The count was 51 percent lower than last November in the suburbs to the south of the city, including those as far west as Framingham.

Other indicators corroborate what the waste water tests show. Massachusetts reported 12 confirmed deaths attributed to the virus from November 10 to 16, the fewest at this time of year since COVID emerged. Hospital admissions for COVID statewide this November are likewise a fraction of those reported around the same time from 2020 to 2023.

The data in the Boston region mirrors trends nationwide. Emergency department visits, hospitalizations, and deaths attributable to COVID are all lower in the United States than at the same time last year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Experts emphasized that COVID is still too new to draw hard conclusions over what current data might mean.

“COVID doesn’t follow a strict seasonal pattern the way that many infectious diseases do,” said Matthew Fox, a professor of epidemiology and global healthy at Boston University. “It’s still on the newish side.”

Several factors are likely behind COVID’s slower spread so far this month.

A summer surge in infections bestowed immunity that is still fairly strong in those who caught the virus. The variants currently circulating also aren’t particularly different from those that have been infecting people for months, said Assoumou, making them less effective at evading people’s immune systems. And after four years of vaccinations and COVID infections, the public is generally well protected from serious illness and death.

While it’s too soon to say whether the current COVID levels portend a less severe winter season, experts said they’re a good sign.

“I would not be surprised if we see a spike after Thanksgiving and over the winter again, but I think it’s going to be smaller,” said Dr. Jacob Lemieux, a Mass General Brigham infectious disease expert.

The holiday season brings more indoor gatherings, more visits with relatives, and more students moving back and forth between school and home. It all contributes to the spread of respiratory viruses, including flu and RSV.

“There is likely to be a mixing of people from areas with higher COVID-19 levels and that may impact Massachusetts levels in the next few weeks,” Dr. Catherine M. Brown, an epidemiologist with the state’s Department of Public Health said in a statement.

The lower COVID levels have been a sliver of relief for the state’s hospitals, which are already struggling with high patient volumes in their emergency departments. Doctors and hospital administrators are concerned about how much busier they’ll be when respiratory viruses begin to spread more widely.

Health officials urged people to stay up to date with vaccinations as the winter months approach.

“This is the time to get vaccinated for both COVID-19 and the flu, as well as for RSV if eligible,” the Boston Public Health Commission said in a statement Monday.

A COVID infection typically confers about three months of strong immunity to the virus, Assoumou said. After that, there’s value to getting an updated vaccine shot, particularly for people at higher risk of serious illness from COVID.

“It’d be really helpful to get that extra boost to make sure you’re carried over for the entire season,” she said.

She also emphasized that treatments for COVID, including Paxlovid, are effective and can help manage COVID infections.

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Jason Laughlin can be reached at jason.laughlin@globe.com. Follow him @jasmlaughlin.