Inside the Chargers’ showdown vs. Chiefs: Has the gap narrowed between AFC West rivals?

EL SEGUNDO, Calif. — The Kansas City Chiefs, at 11-1, are more than likely going to claim their ninth straight AFC West title. The Los Angeles Chargers, who last won the division in 2009, are in second place at 8-4. They have a 5 percent chance of overcoming the Chiefs down the home stretch and finishing atop the AFC West, according to The Athletic’s playoff projection model.

It’s a long shot. It will become no shot if the Chargers lose to the Chiefs on Sunday night at Arrowhead.

With a win, according to the model, the Chargers would increase their division-winning odds to 13.9 percent. Over their final four games, the Chiefs face a now-feisty Cleveland Browns team, two division leaders in the Houston Texans (8-5) and Steelers (9-3), and a likely playoff team in the Denver Broncos (8-5). The Chargers, meanwhile, have three of four games against teams without winning records — the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6), New England Patriots (3-10) and Las Vegas Raiders (2-10). They also face the Broncos.

A simple look at the standings would indicate that the Chiefs, with their one loss, are juggernauts. That is not the case, which makes the Chargers’ division hopes a bit more realistic.

While the Chiefs entered the week tied for the best record in the league, they have a 54-point differential. That ranks 11th in the league. In fact, since 2000, that is the worst point differential among the 23 teams that have started a season 11-1 or better, according to TruMedia. The next closest team in that span? The 2012 Atlanta Falcons, who started 11-1 with an 88-point differential. Only three teams since 2000 have started 11-1 or better with a point differential under 100. The Chiefs have pulled off some late-game magic this season.

The Chargers need to defeat them to keep their division dreams alive. That is primarily what is at stake Sunday, as the Chargers and Chiefs meet in one of the best environments in pro football.

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Then there are the less tangible stakes. What would a win at Arrowhead in December, with the postseason on the horizon, mean for what Jim Harbaugh is trying to build in Los Angeles?

“We’re in the playoff fight. Good,” Harbaugh said this week. “It’s on the road. Good. It’s against the Chiefs. Good. Let’s get prepared and get ready to roll.”

Here are some key matchups and storylines.

James missed the Chargers’ Week 4 loss to the Chiefs while serving a suspension. Kelce, the Chiefs’ star tight end, caught seven of his nine targets for 89 yards, his third-best receiving game of the season.

How eager is James for this matchup, considering he had to watch the last game from his couch?

“So excited, man,” he said. “I’m just ready to go play. Can’t wait.”

James should be one-on-one with Kelce a good amount in this game. Coordinator Jesse Minter has used James as a tight end eraser throughout this season. James has been playing considerably more nickel over the past five weeks. It has become his primary role in Minter’s defense.

Playing James at nickel aligns him closer to the line of scrimmage and, therefore, the ball. He can be more impactful in the run game that way. It also allows him to play press-man coverage on tight ends. James also can play press-man on tight ends when he aligns as the Chargers’ dime player in six defensive back packages, another position closer to the line of scrimmage.

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The Chargers have faced a number of the best tight ends in the league this season, and they have kept all of them in check, largely because of how Minter is deploying James. The only tight end to finish with more than 60 yards against the Chargers was Kelce, and James obviously did not play in that game.

The Raiders’ Brock Bowers, who leads all tight ends with 884 receiving yards, had 58 yards in Week 1. The Arizona Cardinals’ Trey McBride, who is second with 781 yards, had 51 yards in Week 7. The Browns’ David Njoku had 29 yards in Week 9. The Baltimore Ravens’ Mark Andrews had 44 yards in Week 12. Last week, the Falcons’ Kyle Pitts did not have a catch on two targets.

“All those guys prepared me for these moments,” James said.

According to Pro Football Focus, James has only given up five completions to tight ends all season — one to Bowers, one to Andrews, one to the Carolina Panthers’ Tommy Tremble and two to the New Orleans Saints’ Juwan Johnson.

“He’s one of the best players in the league when he’s doing the things I think that he does really well,” Minter said of James.

James will likely be matched up with Kelce in man coverage in some pivotal moments. How those reps go will be a big factor in the game, as is always the case when James and Kelce are on the field together.

“It’s a battle,” James said. “It’s man-on-man, so you know what time it is.”

Protecting against Chiefs’ pressure packages

On top of missing James on defense, the Chargers were without both of their starting tackles against the Chiefs in Week 4.

Left tackle Rashawn Slater missed the game with a pectoral injury. Right tackle Joe Alt missed the game with a knee injury. The Chargers kicked Trey Pipkins III out to right tackle from right guard. Jamaree Salyer started at left tackle. Sam Mustipher started at right guard. And then Justin Herbert was still severely affected by the high ankle sprain he suffered in Week 2.

“Justin could barely move at the time,” offensive coordinator Greg Roman said this week. “So I think it’s going to be a very different ball game.”

Amid the injuries, the Chargers struggled in pass protection. Herbert was pressured on 51.7 percent of his dropbacks, according to TruMedia, which remains a season high. He could do very little to create when pressure arrived. Defensive lineman Chris Jones had two third-down sacks, which came on blitzes from the Chiefs defense. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is one of the most blitz-happy play callers in the league, and he picked his spots against the Chargers.

How will the Chargers fare against Spagnuolo’s blitzes this time around, now that they are at full strength up front and at quarterback?

“He always does some things that you haven’t really scouted or seen,” Roman said.

The key for the Chargers will be avoiding clear-passing situations. They have to be more efficient on early downs. The Chargers rank 31st in offensive success rate on first and second downs, according to TruMedia. If they are inefficient on these downs, that will set up third-and-longs, and Spagnuolo can dial up some exotic looks.

The Chiefs have the third-highest blitz rate in the league at 24.1 percent, according to TruMedia. On third and fourth downs with 8 or more yards to gain, that rate jumps to 48.5 percent.

“Try to give your players as many looks as you can in the week and alert them to things that may happen,” Roman said, “and then go play the game.”

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A more ‘methodical’ Chiefs offense

Over the past two seasons, the Chiefs have pivoted their offensive identity. In quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ first five seasons as a starter, the Chiefs had the most explosive offense in football. They created explosives — completions of more than 15 yards and rushes of more than 11 yards — on 13.1 percent of their offensive plays, the highest mark in the league, according to TruMedia.

In 2023, that rate dropped to 10.4 percent, which ranked 16th. This season, the Chiefs are creating explosives on 9 percent of their offensive plays, which ranks 29th.

And yet the Chiefs still rank fourth in offensive success rate, according to TruMedia. They are not the same explosive offense. They are still a good offense. Just smaller bites to finish the meal.

The Chiefs achieve this by being excellent on third down. They are the only team in the league converting third downs more than 50 percent of the time. They are at a 64.4 percent conversion rate on third downs with 7 or fewer yards to gain, also the best mark in the league, according to TruMedia.

“They can win games just about every which way,” Minter said. “They can get in the shootout and hit the explosives, and they’ve got the skill guys to do that. They can be in the grind-it-out (games). They’ve got a really good defense, too. They trust Patrick to move the sticks. And so I think what makes them challenging is that even when they are methodical, they’re still so good on third down that they just move the ball.”

The starting point for the Chargers will be stopping the run. Running back Isiah Pacheco returned off injured reserve in last week’s win over the Raiders. He had seven carries for 44 yards in his first game since Sept. 15. He should see an increased workload now that he has a game under his belt. The Chiefs are eighth in EPA per designed rush even though they were missing Pacheco for most of the season.

If the Chargers can slow down the running game, they can get into some longer third downs. And they could potentially have an advantage on the edge. The Chiefs benched their left tackle, Wanya Morris, against the Raiders. They signed D.J. Humphries last week, and Humphries is in line to start in place of Morris on Sunday night.

Left tackle has been a major issue for the Chiefs all season. Of their 17 sacks allowed, nine have come from left tackle between Morris and rookie Kingsley Suamataia, according to TruMedia. Humphries has not played in an NFL game in nearly a year. Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Tuli Tuipulotu and Bud Dupree could have a chance to eat on that side of the Chiefs line.

(Top photo of Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes: Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)